NBA Conference Semifinal Preview

Back by popular demand (popular meaning Stong's wishes) come my NBA playoff predictions. So I had mixed results in the first round. I picked five out of eight series correctly (Lakers, Nuggets, Cavs, Celtics, Magic), and I had three series correctly picked in terms of games (Lakers, Cavs, Magic). I missed on the Mavs, Rockets, and Hawks. However, the only one I completely missed on was the Spurs-Mavs series. In retrospect, I completely forgot about Josh Howard when evaluating the Mavs and his health was the difference in the series. When he is healthy he makes them a much better team, and by not including him in my preview I made an egregious oversight. The Bulls-Celtics series was incredible and I think that the Bulls outplayed them for most of the series but made too many mistakes to win. Now on to the second round (I know the Nuggets-Mavs series already started but I have been busy and the result today just confirms who I was going to pick):

Western Conference:

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #5 Houston Rockets
Lakers in 5

Houston is a tough team to beat. They have two guys that can give Kobe fits at times in Shane Battier and Ron Artest. They have one of the toughest guys to guard in the league in Yao. Carl Landry, Luis Scola, and Chuck Hayes can all rebound the basketball, especially on the offensive end. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry make a solid 1-2 combo at the point. And former Laker Von Wafer has emerged this season as a good scorer off the bench. However, none of this will be enough to make the series last more than five games. The Lakers have too much depth for Houston. Between Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum, the Lakers have enough length to give Yao some trouble. And the Lakers' bigs will be able to beat Yao down court for easy buckets all series all the while wearing Yao down. Trevor Ariza has emerged as a reliable offensive player and he always wreaks havoc on the defensive end. Bynum should bounce back from his disappointing first round, and a matchup with a bigger center might help him as defending Boozer, Millsap, and Okur proved to be difficult for Andrew in the series against the Jazz. Then there is that Kobe fellow. Don't think he is taking Artest's comments that Brandon Roy is the best player he has played against lightly. I think we are going to see the quiet assassin Kobe that we saw in Game 4 in Utah. Add this all up and the Lakers will take care of business in five. I see the game winners going in this order: Lakers, Lakers, Rockets, Lakers, Lakers. I could even see the series ending up in a Lakers' sweep but I would be shocked if it went more than five games.

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks
Nuggets in 6

I am going to pretend like Game One didn't already happen. The Mavericks should put up a good fight in this series before ultimately falling short. Jason Kidd matches up well with Chauncey Billups as Billups is a bigger guard who won't kill Kidd with quickness. Josh Howard can also matchup with Carmelo Anthony and he will force Anthony to play on both ends of the floor. Dirk should be able to control his battle with Kenyon Martin. Jason Terry and J.R. Smith both provide firepower off their respective benches. So why am I picking Dallas to lose in six? Two reasons: One, Dallas just doesn't have the offensive weapons that Denver has. Between Billups, Anthony, Smith, and even Nene, Martin, and Linas Kleiza, the Nuggets have plenty of people who can score the basketball. Beyond Terry, Nowitzki, and Howard, the Mavs will have trouble scoring the rock. Second reason is home court advantage. Denver is a difficult place to play. The Nuggets have the luxury of playing four home games in the Mile High City and I think it is going to be difficult for Dallas to steal a game on the road. I do expect the series to be entertaining and I think most of the games will be close.

Eastern Conference:

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks
Cavs in 5

I believe that the Hawks have the skills and the athleticism to matchup with the Cavs. However, I don't think they have the mindset to win this series. It was apparent in their first round matchup with the Heat as they let a team with one good player(granted a damn good one) win three games. The Hawks don't play well on the road and, in case anyone forgot, the Cavs don't lose in their home arena. I think the Cavs can split in Atlanta and win their three home games. It will be intersting to see who the Hawks use on LeBron. My money is on Joe Johnson but I also think we might see a little bit of Josh Smith as well. The Hawks have a good team with Mike Bibby, Johnson, Smith, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams but their lack of focus and their inability to win on the road makes this series relatively easy to call.

#2 Boston Celtics vs. #3 Orlando Magic
Celtics in 7

All signs point to a Magic series win. But I can't go against the C's in this one. Dwight Howard will own the middle as the Celtics have a big man rotation of Big Baby Davis, Kendrick Perkins, Brian Scalabrine, and Mikki Moore. The Magic are also are great defensive team and can space the floor on offense with their outside shooting. Plus, the Celtics are going to be worn down from their classic series with the Bulls. Yet, I am picking the Celtics once again. They always seem to be able to come through when they need to. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will lead the way, and Rajon Rondo's emergence as an elite point guard will be huge in this series as he will control his matchup with Rafer Alston. Big Baby has been playing very well since KG's injury and Stephon Marbury should provide good minutes off the bench (just kidding). So while it appears the Magic should be the favorites in the series, I just think the Celtics will find a way to prevail. They have no shot of making it past the Cavs in the East, but their pride as champions will ultimately lead to a victory in this series.

There you have it. My second round predictions. As always, they are likely to go wrong..
Let me know your predictions in the comments below.. Thank you and GOOD NIGHT NOW!!