The term "must-win game" is one of the more overused cliches in all of professional sports. Rarely is a game actually must-win.. So with the Lakers and Nuggets tied at one game apiece headed into tonight's showdown in the Mile High City, the question is being bandied about: Is this a must-win game for the Lakers? The Nuggets now have homecourt advantage and have won 15 straight games at the Pepsi Center. Obviously, this game has huge implications on the series as the Lakers would need to win 3 out of the 4 remaining games tonight, including at least one win in Denver. However, I don't think this game is absolutely, 100% must-win. If the Lakers come out tonight and execute and play hard, but come up short, then I think that's okay. The big goal is for the Lakers to prove to themselves that they can win in Denver. If they have the confidence to steal a game at the Nuggets' home arena, then I think they have a shot in Game 4 even if they lose tonight. But if the Lakers get blown out for the third straight road game, then I think their confidence starts to unravel. I think the Lakers need to compete hard tonight to show everyone they won't roll over and die. But to call this a must-win is a tad bit premature. A few thoughts headed into tonight's game:
- The Lakers must pound the ball inside to Odom, Bynum, and most importantly, Gasol. When the Lakers were disciplined in the first two games and threw the ball to their big men, they scored rather easily. The onus is on both the guards to make a concerted effort to throw it inside and on the big men to prove they want to dominate. The Lakers best shot to win will come from the ability to get easy looks inside tonight.
- Speaking of Pau... 44 minutes is way too many for him to be playing. He needs a bigger break at some point in time. Bynum didn't play very much in the second half despite the fact that he was effective. Phil needs to find a way to sit Pau for about 10 minutes tonight and let Bynum play some more minutes as well.
- Kobe needs to be iso'd all night. There is not a single Nugget defender who can stop him. Unlike the series against the Rockets, the Nuggets don't play great team defense so Kobe can get to the rim at will. He needs to get to the hoop and draw fouls on the Nuggets' big men while racking up easy points at the charity stripe. Normally, I'm a big proponent of the Kobe and Pau pick-and-roll, and while I think it should still be used, I think Kobe isolations are the best bet in big spots tonight.
- Phil needs to stop being stubborn and cut D-Fish's minutes and I mean BIG TIME. Fish is a liability on both ends of the floor. He can't hit jumpers, he can't finish around the hoop, and he can't stay in front of Chauncey Billups. Farmar and Brown deserve the bulk of the minutes, and one of the most important subplots heading into Game 3 will be whether or not Phil breaks his traditional stubborn arrogance and sits the fading veteran Fisher.
I think the Lakers can win this game tonight. Am I as confident as I want to be? Absolutely not. But if they are disciplined on offense and pound it inside to Pau (who only had 17 FG attempts in the first two games) and Lamar, then I think they have a 50-50 shot. Which is all you can really ask for at this point.
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