Los Angeles Lakers vs. Orlando Magic

The NBA Finals matchup is now set. After defeating the #1 overall Cleveland Cavaliers, the Orlando Magic will represent the Eastern Conference as they take on the Los Angeles Lakers. Even though this series doesn't have the appeal of Kobe v. LeBron, I think it will be a better series overall. My initial thoughts on the matchup from the Lakers viewpoint:

• The Lakers now have home court advantage. With the 2-3-2 format, it will be huge if the Lakers can hold court in the first two games in L.A. It is very difficult for the home team to win all three of those middle games (Games 3,4, and 5). I don't like the 2-3-2 and I think it is very outdated, but that's the way it is. Even if the Lakers were to split in L.A. and win only one game in Orlando, they would still be able to come home for Games 6 and 7 in L.A. So I think the Lakers have the advantage with the weird format.
• The Magic will cause some tough matchups for the Lakers on defense. To start off, the Magic shoot an incredible amount of 3-pointers and the Lakers do not defend the arc well at all. To start off the game, I would assume it will be Fisher on Alston, Kobe on Lee, Ariza on Lewis, Gasol on Turkoglu, and Bynum on Howard. However, I would not be surprised to see the Lakers run some sort of matchup zone defense to keep Bynum and Gasol from having to step out too far on defense. Now, when Lamar Odom is in the game, I think he will be responsible for Turkoglu, as Rashard Lewis is too fast for him. There are two keys for the Lakers defense in my opinion: 1. Neutralizing Howard on the offensive glass. Andrew Bynum will be key in this respect. If he can stop Howard from destroying the Lakers on the glass, it will go a ways in helping the Lakers win. 2. The Lakers MUST stop dribble penetration. This starts with Derek Fisher on Rafer Alston. The Magic thrive off of making the defense collapse before kicking it out to a wide open shooter. They run a 4-1 offensive set constantly with Howard in the middle and four perimeter players on the outside. It will be important for the Lakers to force the Magic into contested jumpshots and the easiest way to do that is to stop dribble penetration.
• On the other side of the ball, the Lakers have a few things in their favor. One is, obviously, Kobe Bryant. The rookie Courtney Lee will get the initial crack at Kobe, but it's likely that Mickael Pietrus will be the one guarding Kobe down the stretch. I respect Pietrus' defensive ability, but if the Magic choose to guard Kobe one-on-one, I think he will have a field day. On the inside, the Lakers will need to punish the Magic for going small (if two 6'10" forwards is small). When Bynum is in the game, either he or Pau will be guarded by either Lewis or Turkoglu, giving the Lakers an immense advantage on the inside. My guess is that the Magic would put Howard on the better inside scorer, Gasol, and force Bynum to beat them. If the Lakers are patient on offense (see: Game 6 in Denver), they should be able to shred the Magic inside. Another positive, if Howard does guard Gasol, the Lakers will be able to draw him away from the basket allowing slashers like Trevor Ariza and Kobe Bryant a chance to get to the rim undeterred.
• Lamar Odom, as always, will be the X-factor for the Lakers. If he plays like he did the last two games of the Denver series, the Lakers should be fine. If not, then they will be in trouble. The Lakers have to be hoping these five full off-days give Lamar a chance to heal up. His bruised back has been bothering him, and they need him as close to 100% as possible. Lamar will see a lot of minutes in this series, especially since it figures that Bynum will be using up his fouls on Dwight Howard. Lamar needs to be a threat offensively, and if he is guarded in the post by either Lewis or Turk, then he needs to go to work inside. He cannot settle for jump shots and he must use his size and strength on the block to his advantage. A productive Lamar will probably end up in a championship for the Lakers. Otherwise, they will have to depend on Bynum inside, and at this point in time, is anyone comfortable with that?

People seem to think the Magic are a soft team that likes to jack up a bunch of 3-pointers. The truth is, they are pretty darn good offensively and defensively. They were eighth in the league in offensive efficiency, and they led the league in defensive efficiency. To combat this, the Lakers will need to take their time on offense and find the mismatch. There will be a mismatch on every possession, and if the Lakers are patient, they could pick apart this Magic defense. The series will come down to which team is able to implement their style of play better. If the Magic get hot from behind the arc, the Lakers will be in big trouble. But if the Lakers use Gasol and Bryant appropriately, the Magic will have no answer. Hopefully, the Lakers are smart and make use of their advantage and we celebrate with a parade down Figueroa St. Only 4 more games...

Lakers Advance to the NBA Finals

For the second straight year, the Los Angeles Lakers will represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. However, we're all hoping it ends up differently this year. The Lakers defeated Denver in impressive fashion to end the series in six games. I'll have some thoughts from the Denver series as well as looking forward to the hypothetical matchups with either Cleveland or Orlando a little bit later today.. Just for the hell of it, my prediction for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals: Orlando 104 Cleveland 101.

The Dancing Nugget

J.R. Smith upset the Lakers with his showboating during Game 4. Smith finally has a good game and proceeds to throw a parade at the Pepsi Center. His "This is my house" act after one of his three pointers in the fourth quarter was repulsive. I am not a prude when it comes to emotion in sports. As much as I loved the calmness with which Barry Sanders tossed the ball to the ref after another long TD run, I do understand that the "act like you have been there before" model doesn't work for everyone. That being said, the entire Nuggets team is over the top. The worst two culprits? J.R. Smith and Chris "Birdman" Andersen. After every block or dunk, the Birdman flaps his wings. Smith, on the other hand, starts screaming and dancing after every big play he makes. But there is a line between celebration and showing up your opponents. Excitement shared after a big play between teammates is acceptable. So is a little bit of trash talking. That is all part of the game. But when celebration turns into showboating and showing up opponents, then you have an issue. What Smith did at the end of Game 4, when he hit a three and danced in front of the Lakers bench, was showboating. When he hit a three at the end of the third quarter in Game 3, that was taunting and showing up his opponent. All of this should be unacceptable in the Lakers' eyes.

So where am I going with this? Basically, if you think the Lakers haven't internalized all of this, you are crazy. I don't believe too much in bulletin board material, or extra motivation, but I do think that this series now has an edge to it. The Lakers should no longer only want to win, but also to take it to the Nuggets. I expect a HUGE game from Kobe tonight. The two cheap fouls on Dahntay Jones combined with the way the entire Nuggets team acts during the game should just fuel his fire. Over/under for Kobe tonight: 45 points. I say he goes under, but only slightly. Kobe may not need to win this game for the Lakers on his own, but if it gets to that point, I can't see him letting them lose tonight. There is too much on the line. Lakers 106, Nuggets 102..

Thank You

Thank you Kobe. That's all.

Must Win Game for the Lakers?

The term "must-win game" is one of the more overused cliches in all of professional sports. Rarely is a game actually must-win.. So with the Lakers and Nuggets tied at one game apiece headed into tonight's showdown in the Mile High City, the question is being bandied about: Is this a must-win game for the Lakers? The Nuggets now have homecourt advantage and have won 15 straight games at the Pepsi Center. Obviously, this game has huge implications on the series as the Lakers would need to win 3 out of the 4 remaining games tonight, including at least one win in Denver. However, I don't think this game is absolutely, 100% must-win. If the Lakers come out tonight and execute and play hard, but come up short, then I think that's okay. The big goal is for the Lakers to prove to themselves that they can win in Denver. If they have the confidence to steal a game at the Nuggets' home arena, then I think they have a shot in Game 4 even if they lose tonight. But if the Lakers get blown out for the third straight road game, then I think their confidence starts to unravel. I think the Lakers need to compete hard tonight to show everyone they won't roll over and die. But to call this a must-win is a tad bit premature. A few thoughts headed into tonight's game:

• The Lakers must pound the ball inside to Odom, Bynum, and most importantly, Gasol. When the Lakers were disciplined in the first two games and threw the ball to their big men, they scored rather easily. The onus is on both the guards to make a concerted effort to throw it inside and on the big men to prove they want to dominate. The Lakers best shot to win will come from the ability to get easy looks inside tonight.
• Speaking of Pau... 44 minutes is way too many for him to be playing. He needs a bigger break at some point in time. Bynum didn't play very much in the second half despite the fact that he was effective. Phil needs to find a way to sit Pau for about 10 minutes tonight and let Bynum play some more minutes as well.
• Kobe needs to be iso'd all night. There is not a single Nugget defender who can stop him. Unlike the series against the Rockets, the Nuggets don't play great team defense so Kobe can get to the rim at will. He needs to get to the hoop and draw fouls on the Nuggets' big men while racking up easy points at the charity stripe. Normally, I'm a big proponent of the Kobe and Pau pick-and-roll, and while I think it should still be used, I think Kobe isolations are the best bet in big spots tonight.
• Phil needs to stop being stubborn and cut D-Fish's minutes and I mean BIG TIME. Fish is a liability on both ends of the floor. He can't hit jumpers, he can't finish around the hoop, and he can't stay in front of Chauncey Billups. Farmar and Brown deserve the bulk of the minutes, and one of the most important subplots heading into Game 3 will be whether or not Phil breaks his traditional stubborn arrogance and sits the fading veteran Fisher.

I think the Lakers can win this game tonight. Am I as confident as I want to be? Absolutely not. But if they are disciplined on offense and pound it inside to Pau (who only had 17 FG attempts in the first two games) and Lamar, then I think they have a 50-50 shot. Which is all you can really ask for at this point.

Curse of "I Love LA"?

So with the baseball season at the quarter pole, it's time to look back at my predictions of the year. Unfortunately, they are not very pretty. In fact, I must say that I have cursed almost all the players and teams that I picked to do well. Let's take a look at the teams first:

So far, only two of the six teams I picked to win their divisions are actually in first place (Dodgers and Phillies). In fact, my first place Cleveland Indians are resting comfortably in dead last in the AL Central right now. Some other misguided picks: Arizona winning 87 games (currently have a .385 Winning Percentage), Oakland A's winning 81 games (currently with a .389 Winning Percentage), Texas Rangers winning only 72 games (currently in first with a .605 Winning Percentage), and Toronto winning 70 games (but everyone missed that one). My lone bright spot: The entire NL East is currently in the order that I picked it. So there you have it, I am a National League Eastern Divison Expert!

Now here's where it gets even uglier- My individual awards picks. Let's review.

NL MVP- Chase Utley
This isn't so bad. Utley has actually fared very well so far this season. The former UCLA star is putting up a .282/.429/.565 line so far this season with 10 HR's and 26 RBI. One problem: Albert Pujols is even better. So Philly will probably need to win their division and Pujols will need to cool off or have his team completely fall out of the race for Utley to have a shot.

AL MVP- Grady Sizemore
Grady has been pretty bad this season. His line: A paltry .212/.292/.388. Yikes. Sizemore does have 7 HR and 25 RBI, and it is conceivable that he could get hot and finish around his career averages. The biggest problem will be the fact that his team is terrible.

NL Cy Young- Brandon Webb
Uh oh... Webb made one start going four innings before hurting his shoulder. He has yet to return. I'll keep this short and sweet- A Cy Young from him ain't happening this year.

AL Cy Young- Jon Lester
At least Lester has been healthy. Unfortunatlely, he has been ineffective. A 6.52 ERA, .311 BAA, and 1.62 WHIP are proof positive. He has also allowed a jaw-dropping 10 HR's in his 8 starts. Add 60 hits in only 47 innings and I think it's pretty clear that he isn't winning anything. Oh, and all those wins I said he would pick up because of the Sox offense? Ya, I was wrong again. So far Lester has only 2 wins, or 2 more than Brandon Webb!

NL Rookie of the Year- James McDonald
And the ineptitude continues. J-Mac has been awful for the Dodgers and now finds himself back in AAA. J-Mac's pitching line: 6.75 ERA, 16 BB's in 18.2 innings, a 1.77 WHIP(!!!). To McDonald's credit, he pitched well out of the bullpen after his demotion from the rotation and he should get a few more shots this season to prove me right.

AL Rookie of the Year- Matt Wieters
Wieters has yet to get the call this year because the Orioles are awful and they don't want to start his service time clock yet. However, once June rolls around, meaning he will no longer qualifiy as a Super-Two arbitration guy, he will probably get called up. He should put up some pretty impressive numbers, but the question is will it be enough? I'm gonna say no..


Some say making predictions is a fool's errand. I have one thing to say to that: Apparently so.

Comeback Kings

The Lakers staged a great comeback last night to take Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Denver Nuggets. Kobe led the way with 40 points, including 18 in the fourth quarter. I didn't watch the game live, as I was at Dodger Stadium, but I did watch the second and fourth quarters (thanks to Tivo). I would like to thank the person in front of me for letting Stong, Kime and I look over his shoulder the entire fourth quarter. The guy had his phone with ESPN mobile giving realtime scoring updates. Needless to say we were pretty excited down the stretch. It was a huge win for the guys, and I am counting on Lamar and Pau to make bigger contributions in Game 2, which will hopefully lead to the Lakers holding their home-court advantage.

The Dodgers were also masters of the comeback yesterday. The boys came back from an early 3-1 deficit to take the lead for good on Casey Blake's three run bomb in the bottom of the sixth. The Bearded Bobblehead went deep (on the night before his bobblehead night) for his team leading 9th home run. It seems that since I have created this blog, anyone I criticize makes me eat crow. As long as they are players on my favorite teams, you can serve it to me all day. Chad Billingsley's outing was shaky, but he still made it into the seventh inning while giving up only three runs. Chad struck out seven and walked five. Included in his performance was a horrifying two inning stretch in the second and third innings where he couldn't find the plate. But this is what I love about Chad; even when he struggles he somehow makes it deep into the game and limits the damage. He had made 82 pitches or so through three innings, but he was able to settle down and save the pen. Huge win for the Dodgers and tonight they go for the sweep.

Overall, another great day for L.A. The Lakers are up a game in the Conference Finals, and the Dodgers lead in the West has been stretched to 7 1/2 games at the quarter pole of the season.

Where's Kelly Leak When we Need Him?

Coach Morris Buttermaker's New York Mets gave the Dodgers and their fans an entertaining 3-2 victory on Monday night to open a three-game set at Dodger Stadium. The Mets made five (count em... Five!) errors in the field, including a errant throw from Jeremy Reed to catcher Ramon Castro in the 11th inning that allowed Mark Loretta to score the winning run from third. Oh, and then there was that boneheaded baserunning error by Ryan Church where he missed third base completely on what would have been the go-ahead run on Angel Pagan's triple in the top of the 11th. Thank you very much Mark Loretta for spotting that, although it appeared that half the team was on top of it as well. Obviously it was not the most well played baseball game you will see, but the Dodgers will definitely take it regardless of how ugly it was. Randy Wolf pitched another good game, going 7 2/3 and allowing only 2 runs (one of which was a runner that was inherited by Cory Wade). Yet, Wolfie got another no-decision (that's five now in only nine starts). But the Dodgers win and that's all that matters. I would love to say more, but I have a paper to write for one of my classes. Exciting!

Will Ohman = Funniest Man Alive

Will Ohman is a very funny man. My friend Brian has told me stories of him messing with the fans during BP in San Francisco. I sat next to the Dodger bullpen a few weeks back with a large group of guys (Dodger BBQ VII I believe) and Ohman interacted with crowd. There was even a moment where a beach ball fell into the Dodger bullpen from the pavilion and Ohman hit it back into the crowd before security could grab it. Then there was the whole "Beware of Flying Objects" sign in Philly after Ohman gave up a bomb to Raul Ibanez. And now comes the kicker.. In response to Manny's suspension and subsequent apology to the team, Ohman said this:

"For a guy going into his second trimester, he looks great,'' Dodgers reliever Will Ohman said. "He's barely showing.''

I heard that quote and it turned my crappy Monday into a decent day. Thank you Will Ohman. You are worth you're salary just based off quotes like this..

What a Day

What a difference a week makes. Sunday was a great day for any sports fan in Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw got the party started bright and early by flirting with a no-hitter and looking downright filthy against Florida. Then, a little bit later, the good Lakers showed up against the Rockets in Game 7 to avoid a monumental upset. The Lakers jumped on Houston right away and never let them in the game. Then, for those who are fans of vengence, the Celtics got blown out on their home court in Game 7 against the Orlando Magic. Not too shabby. All that was missing was a San Francisco Giants loss, but I can't complain. Random thoughts:

• Juan Pierre is scalding. I am the harshest critic of Pierre, so it kills me to say this, but the man is on fire. Will I ever be a fan? Not a chance in the place below the Earth. But I have to give the man his due. If he would have played like this the first two years of the contract then he wouldn't be in the predicament he is in this season. Now the question is: When does reality set in? Juan's OBP's from the past four seasons: .326, .330, .331, .327. His OBP this year is .461. Juan's SLG% the past four seasons: .354, .388, .353, .328. So why am I raining on this poor man's parade? Because I don't want to hear anyone saying that Pierre deserves to play when Manny comes back. I look at history, and his small 69 at-bat sample this year doesn't hold weight in the grand scheme of things. I hope Juan continues to stay red-hot, but let's all keep some perspective people.
• The Dodgers skeleteon crew can rake. On a day with no Martin, Blake, Ethier and Furcal, the backups outshined the regulars. Juan Castro, who is still Juan Castro, ripped a homerun to left and got on base four times. Mark Loretta had three hits and a walk. The X-Man, Xavier Paul walked twice and scored twice, and made an awkward yet impressive diving catch in right. Even the weak-hitting Brad Ausmus had a hit. I am not a fan of Torre's strategy of sitting four regulars at once, but I can't dispute the results so far this season. Still, I wish he would stagger the off-days.
• I loved seeing Kershaw locate his curveball. When he is getting that over, there is no touching him. He even mixed in an estimated 12 changeups, which I think is necessary to keep hitters off balance. Kershaw has two plus pitches in his fastball and his curve, so if he can throw even an average changeup, I think he will be unhittable. Today was Exhibit A. He pitched off his fastball, and despite a few bouts of wildness, he dominated the Florida Marlins. I might be the only person in LA who was happy that Cody Ross broke up the no-hitter in the eighth, but I didn't want Torre or Honey thinking it was okay to leave Kershaw in to throw 135 pitches. His future matters waaaaaaay more than a no-hitter. That's just my opinion but I think I am right.
• Steve Lyons is annoying (to put it nicely). Self-evident right? Well he continues to take it to a new level. When arguing against pitch counts during the broadcast, Lyons proclaimed that it's just as easy to get hurt on the 35th pitch of a game as it is on the 120th (I'm paraphrasing, the exact numbers escape me). Yes, Steve, that is true. But it's the long-term effects of high pitch counts that have caused the new era of pitch count monitoring in baseball. Ever wonder why the great pitchers of old were never effective past the age of 35 or so? It's because they pitched an ungodly amount of innings and made way too many pitches. There is a whole library of evidence that proves that anytime a pitcher makes more than 120 pitches in a start, he is putting his arm at severe risk. With millions of dollars invested in these players, it's no wonder teams want to keep them effective for as long as possible. And also, Juan Pierre can't steal every base at any time Steve. I know you think he can, but it's just not possible so stop talking about it..
• Guillermo Mota continues to suck. Awesome. D.F.A. Remember those three letters when Kuroda gets back, Ned.
• I went into the roadtrip hoping for 3-3. They went 4-2. I must say I am pleased. Now comes a good challenge in the visiting New York Mets. I'm excited to see how it goes.

Quick notes from the Lakers:

• Pau stepped up and played nasty. 21 points, 18 boards, and 3 blocks. How's that taste Scola?
• Speaking of Scola, we decided during the broadcast today that he looks like a Russian mobster. Mean-looking dude. I am glad the Lakers are done with him.
• Ron Artest finally had a reality check. After shooting out of his mind for the first two games, he came crashing to reality the rest of the series. Good job Ron-Ron. Keep shooting those off-balance three pointers with two defenders on you.
• Bynum showed up again. I really hope this is the beginning of a trend but I can't say I am counting on it. What impressed me the most was his presence on defense.
• Sasha got the jumper working today. I am hoping he can parlay that into the series against Denver. His shooting ability is always a huge plus for the Lakers. His energy will be needed against the Nuggets, as he will probably have to chase around J.R. Smith all series.

Needless to say (again), today was a great day. I am exhausted but thrilled. It's days like today that I am happy I invest so much time and energy into my favorite teams. We'll see how I feel Tuesday, but I am hoping for another perfect day... I love LA!

All-Time NBA Starting Lineup

Just like my Favorite Five Athletes of all-time post, a Facebook inquiry has led me to list my All-Time NBA Starting Lineup. Here it is, by position:

Point Guard: Oscar Robertson
I have to go with Oscar Robertson at the point. He is one of the few athletes of his time who would be an all-star in today's NBA and that is saying alot. As a 6'5" PG blessed with great size and strength, Oscar was too much to handle. He is the last NBA player to average a triple double throughout a full season. I don't think anyone will come close to that again (sorry LeBron). His athleticism, size, and overall ability give him the nod at the point position.
Honorable Mention: Magic Johnson

Shooting Guard: Michael Jordan
This one is simple. Michael Jordan takes the cake. Michael was incredible in every aspect of the game. He was able to reinvent himself as he got older by becoming the most deadly fall-away jump shooter the league has seen. Add the six titles and the commerical success to his resume and it's easy to see why he is considered by most to be the best player in league history. Jordan finished with 30.1 PPG on 49.7% shooting in his career while playing in an era where the defensive players were actually allowed to, you know, play defense. I love Kobe but it's not even close. Jordan's 5 MVP's say it all.
Honorable Mention: Kobe Bryant

Small Forward: Larry Bird
Magic and Larry's rivalry, from college to the NBA, was responsible for the explosion of interest in the NBA. It's remarkable to think that at the beginning of both their careers, NBA Finals games were being shown on tape delay. Bird, appropriately nicknamed Larry Legend (or Basketball Jesus), was a monster. Despite not being blessed with great athleticism, Larry was able to win 3 consecutive MVP's while dominating for more than a decade. Unfortunately, a chronic back problem ended his career early even though he was still a very good player at the time. Bird finished with an average of 24.3 PPG, 10 RPG, and 6.3 APG while showing people that white dudes can play too. Here's to Larry Bird, the Great White Hope.
Honorable Mention: Elgin Baylor

Power Forward: Tim Duncan
Duncan is really, really good at basketball. Boring, yes. But great nonetheless. Duncan's per-game averages won't wow you, but it's his efficiency that makes him remarkable. Duncan has never averaged more than 25.5 PPG in a season, but his defense and all around-play make him a relatively easy choice. Duncan is one of the best low-post defenders the league has seen. His 4 championships, 2 MVP's and numerous accolades are impressive. Overall, Timmy has averaged 21.4 PPG, 11.7 RPG, and 3.2 APG while also adding 2.35 blocks per game. The Big Fundamental might be bad for TV ratings, but he is great if you want a team that will constantly challenge for a championship. He is a model of consistency the likes of which is rarely seen.
Honorable Mention: Karl Malone

Center: Wilt Chamberlain
This one was the toughest to choose. There were 4 very deserving candidates: Chamberlain, Shaquille O'Neal, Bill Russell, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Russell was the ultimate winner, but he just wasn't good enough offensively for me to consider. Shaq was dominant, but his overall lack of effort is a huge negative. Kareem's longevity is remarkable, but I just couldn't pick him. So I went with Wilt the Stilt. In addition to his impressive off-court endeavors (can anyone even count to 10,000?), Chamberlain was able to bring athleticism to the center position that had never been seen before. Wilt was a track-and-field star at Kansas University. He ran the court unlike any other big. His biggest problem was playing in an era with the dominant Celtics. Chamberlain was able to finally get his ring with the 1972-1973 Lakers. Chamberlain's career averages: 30.1 PPG, 22.9 RPG, 4.4 APG, a whole bunch of blocks, and a remarkable amount of women. You can't knock those numbers.
Honorable Mention: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

So there you have it. Let me know what you think and post your own picks.

This Pretty Much Sums it up

So I was going to write a post about the Lakers today. Instead, I ran into this article on ESPN.com by John Hollinger. I think this pretty much sums up all of our frustration at this point. It's nice to see that someone else agrees that the Lakers' strategy has been awful and the truth is that it starts with Phil Jackson. Check it out and let me know what you think. Is Hollinger on the money or is he wrong?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090515

Those Lovable Lakers

Oh Lakers: Why do you play with my heart so much? Game 7's take years off my life, and now we all have to suffer due to the Lakers inability to put away the shorthanded Houston Rockets. Thursday's game was a tape (or Tivo considering it is the 21st century) replay of Sunday's atrocity. The Lakers put themselves in a hole that they just could not climb out of. What should we expect Sunday? I honestly can't say. That's what makes this one of the more frustrating teams to root for in recent memory. The talent is there, but mental toughness and focus just seems to escape them during some critical times. If I had to guess I would say that I expect the Lakers to win easily. But who really knows with this team? I, for one, have absolutely no clue what to expect. Sigh.

Dodgers Finally Win in Philly

The Dodgers got back on track Wednesday in Philadelphia with a 9-2 victory. Randy Wolf had another good start going 6 innings to pick up his second win. Wolf now has a 2.77 ERA on the year and has been a pleasant surprise. But this is where I inject a little bit of reality into the whole situation. He will not keep pitching like this. Case in point: Hitters BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against Wolf going into the game was .239 and it went down more on Wednesday. Pitchers tend to fall within the range of .280-.290 (Wolf's career BABIP against is .294). What this tells us is that Randy has been unusually lucky on batted balls this season. Chances are that this will regress to the mean throughout the season and Wolf will end up close to his career average. His ERA will rise substantially as a result and it's likely he ends up with an ERA over 4.00. So while we should appreciate Wolfie's great start, we shouldn't read too much into and expectations should stay the same as they were at the beginning of the season.

As for the game itself: It was great to see James Loney hit one out even if it took a pop-up at hitter's haven Citizens Bank Park. Loney had three hits and 4 RBI on the night and hopefully this is the beginning of a hot streak. Russell Martin, Orlando Hudson, and Matt Kemp all reached base three times, and Juan Pierre, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal and Kemp had two hits apiece. In fact, the only Dodger regular without a hit was Andre Ethier. I have never thought that Andre was only a good hitter because of Manny, but so far he has struggled without him in the lineup. I do think that he is pressing and I also think he will bust out of it sooner than later, but it's going to be interesting to see how he reacts to the criticism and talk that he needs Manny to be successful.

Overall, it was great to see the boys break out and have a good offensive game, even if it came against the ageless wonder (Copyright: Durfee) that is Jamie Moyer. The game tomorrow should be billed as a pitchers' duel as Dodger nemesis Cole Hamels takes on Chad Billingsley in a 10 AM (PST) getaway game.

The Inconsistent Clayshaw

Clayton Kershaw has pitched exactly as expected so far this year; he has been brilliant at times and painful to watch during others. Twice he has gone seven innings, but those two starts were against the weak-hitting Giants and Padres. He got rocked against Houston and Colorado, giving up a combined 15 runs in 9 innings. The other two starts he went 5 innings while giving up a run each time, and he was unable to go deeper in the games because of an elevated pitch count. So what should we expect from Clayton the rest of the year? I don't think we will see many starts like the ones he had in both Houston and Colorado. But I do think there will be a handful of starts where he can't go past five innings due to his inability to put away hitters. It's funny, Kershaw doesn't give up very many hits (27 hits in 33 innings) and he averages more than a strikeout an inning, yet hitters constantly go deep into counts and foul off pitches which results in an elevated pitch total. It reminds me of when Chad Billingsley first came up as a 21-year-old in 2006. Bills had electric stuff, but couldn't go deep into games. He had inconsistent command at times, but was never really wild. Same goes for Kershaw. His control is fine, his command is okay, but hitters tend to foul off so many pitches. So what is my point in this post? I would say the point is to stay patient. There will be frustrating times during the learning curve. He will have great moments too. But the kid is barely old enough to buy a beer. Remember that when evaluating him and keep in mind that his future is as bright as any other pitcher in baseball. Time will tell if he develops into his potential, but if I was a betting man my money would be on Clayshaw becoming great.

New Poll

Check out the new poll on the right. What do you guys think? How many games will the Dodgers win while Manny Ramirez is out? Some people think the team will wilt like a dying petunia. Others think the Dodgers will be just fine. My personal prediction... I say the Dodgers go 26-24 in Manny's absence.

And why am I a Sports Fan Again?

Today was brutal. I can't think of a better word to describe it. The Lakers looked like they would have rather been anywhere in the world than on the basketball court and the Dodgers lost in thirteen innings. All in all, I spent about 5 1/2 hours of my time in exchange for a whole lot of frustration. It's days like these that I question my sanity: Why would any rational person be a sports fan? I wish I was a fan of musical theatre or something. Anyways, here are some notes from both the Dodgers and Lakers games:

First the Dodgers:

• I really have a tough time with Joe Torre's managing of the bullpen. It seems as if he has no plan at all. First off, the man lets Jeff Weaver bat for himself in the 5th inning, but after he allows one baserunner in the top of the 6th, he yanks him even though Weave had made only 76 pitches at the time. Then to top that off, he brings in Troncoso (which is good, I like Tron Tron), and he proceeds to get a strike out and then allows a 17 hopper through the hole for a single. So what does Torre do? He brings the hook and replaces Troncoso with Will Ohman... He brought the Dodgers lefty specialist into the game in the 6th inning!! And to face who you might ask? The vaunted Travis Ishikawa who is hitting a robust .188 on the year. So basically he wasted a guy who can go multiple innings (Troncoso) to bring in a lefty to face a horrible hitter. And what does Bruce Bochy do? Of course he pinch hits for Ishikawa. Bochy brought in the righty Rich Aurilia. While Ohman got out of the inning, the frustrating part is that Troncoso was wasted for only six pitches. I hated this move at the time and after watching the game play out I hate it even more. Since Torre removed Troncoso so early, he was forced to use Belisario and Wade to handle the 8th and 9th innings. Now fast forward to the top of the 11th. Torre has a choice between James McDonald, Guillermo "God Forbid" Mota, and Brent Leach. With the pitcher due up second in the next inning, Torre has two real options. Use either Mota or Leach and pinch hit for them in the bottom of the inning, or throw McDonald and let him hit for himself and give your team a few innings. So what does Torre do? Naturally, he chooses McDonald AND, after making only 20 pitches, decides to pinch hit for the young righty in the bottom of the inning. This leaves the Dodgers with only two pitchers left, both of which are not very good options. Joe decides to bring in Mota. Of course, Mota gives up a run in the 12th, only to be saved by Casey Blake's home run, and then gives up two more in the next inning for good measure. Just overall terrible bullpen management by a guy known to be quite a dunce in this area. How a manager with an 8 pitcher bullpen could manage to screw the situation up is beyond me. Inexcusable.
• My other thought during the game, besides "Why does our first baseman have less power than Juan Pierre?", was setting the over/under on Guillermo Mota's DFA. I said July 1st, and one of my friends (Brian) said that it must come before July. I know Mota is guaranteed something like 2 million for the remainder of the year, but let's be honest, is he going to help the team at all? When he was brought into the game today there was no doubt what the result was going to be. It is basically a concession when he pitches. Mota now has a 7.43 ERA in 13.1 innings, and has allowed well over 2 baserunners an inning. As mad as I get at him, I blame Ned Colletti waaaaaaaay more for signing him in the first place. Mota has not been good for quite some time, yet Ned gave him a guaranteed major league contract. Luckily, he probably won't pitch too many high-leverage innings the rest of the year.
• The Dodgers now go on the road for six games against the Phillies and the Marlins. I am hoping the team does well, but I think 3-3 is a very reasonable expectation. The Dodgers need Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, and Orlando Hudson to carry the load. Rafael Furcal and James Loney have had absolutely zero value this season (according to FanGraphs), and they must play better for the Dodgers to be successful. Maybe a trip to the band box that is Citizens Bank Park will do the trick..

The Lakers are even more disappointing than the Dodgers. Today's game annoyed me more than Adam Lambert singing "Whole Lotta Love" on American Idol. Up 2-1 in the series with the Rockets best player now out for the season, the Lakers had a shot to choke the Rockets out. Yet, they didn't even show up in this one, as they were outhustled and outplayed from the opening possession. It was really a pathetic display of basketball and it makes me think the Lakers will not win the championship. The Cleveland Cavaliers are destroying their opponents night in and night out, yet the Lakers believe they can flip the switch whenever they want. It's just pathetic. You would think the Lakers would learn from their mistakes, but they never do. Now moving on, I think there are a few things the Lakers must do to control the series...

1. Kobe MUST be used in the pinch post area about fifteen feet from the basket. By doing so, you take advantage of Kobe's passing ability as Houston is more than likely to double him in that spot. I believe Kobe is best in this spot on the floor and it also spares him from having to shoot 20 footers with Shane Battier in his face all night long. It is an easy way to help conserve energy for Kobe.
2. When Kobe isn't in the post, the Lakers need to run more pick-and-rolls with him and Pau Gasol. Even with Yao out for the series, the pick-and-roll can help Kobe create space and give him an advantage going to the basket. Kobe is a great passer when he wants to be and this will help him get into a spot where they can take advantage of his decision making.
3. Derek Fisher needs to play about 18-20 minutes only. Aaron Brooks just lights him up. D-Fish can't keep up with anyone anymore. Personally I would divide the minutes like this: Fisher 18 minutes; Brown 15 minutes; Farmar 15 minutes. This creates a good mix of speed, athleticism, shot-making, and leadership at the point. But if Fisher plays more than this amount, I think he hurts the Lakers way more than he helps.
4. Finally, the Lakers just need to show some heart. They showed it in games 2 and 3, but then today they looked like they were happy to split the games in Houston. This attitude has to change for the Lakers to win a championship. I have tried to give the team the benefit of the doubt all season, but the bottom line is they must show a killer instinct. I hope we see it in Game 5, but these are the Lakers and you just never know. To me this attitude comes from the top on down. Phil Jackson, Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher must set the tone. If they do, I think the Lakers cruise in the next two games. If not, this series could continue to get interesting.

Overall, I think the Lakers are fine. However, I saw some signs today that made me question their ability to win a championship. It hurts me to say that but it's the truth at this point in time. Hopefully they can correct it, because if they can't they will get run off the court by the Cavs in the Finals...

Patience is a Virtue

A quick tidbit while I wait for the start of the Laker game... Does it seem like the Dodgers are more patient at the plate in 2009? That's because they have been.. Taking a look at the Expanded Statistics section on ESPN.com, it becomes evident how well the Dodgers are doing at getting deep into the count. Four Dodgers are in the top 24 of all of Major League Baseball in pitches per plate appearance.. Two of the Dodgers on the list should come as no surprise: Andre Ethier ranks 16th with an average of 4.25 P/PA and Russell Martin is 19th at 4.18 P/PA. Both of these guys are known for their approach at the plate and they are historically strong OBP guys. Another Dodger is Casey Blake (17th with 4.24 P/PA). Blake is doing a good job at the bottom of the order. Now, the fourth Dodger is more of a shock; Matt Kemp is 24th at 4.14 P/PA. From watching the games this year I have gotten the impression that Kemp was getting deeper into counts, but to see him make the leap into the top 25 is awesome. Even though Kemp's BB numbers aren't great and his strikeout total is too high, you can see the progress. The deep counts he is getting into should result in a higher walk total as his career progresses. It's not hard to imagine him posting a 70-80 walk season in the near future. This has been Kemp's biggest weakness coming up, but the progress is indisputable. Take a look at the gradual increase in P/PA in each of his seasons since 2006: 3.52 in 2007, 3.72 in 2008, and now 4.14 so far this season. Does Matt Kemp still strike out too much? Yes. Can he be frustrating at times when he is struggling at the plate? Of course. But it's hard to deny his improvement, and it seems like the breakthrough is taking place. As he continues to improve his plate discipline, stardom seems inevitable for the talented outfielder.

If you are looking for one reason why the Dodgers are off to a great start, their patience is the first place to start. The Dodgers are number one in baseball in walks and OBP (16 walks ahead of the next closest team...Impressive), and if they can keep it up, they will be just fine while Manny "recovers from his injury"..

(Now let the Vinnie has a man crush on Matt Kemp comments begin. I just point out the facts people.)

More Manny

Jon Weisman sums up the whole Manny situation with a clear and level-head amidst all the irrational sports journalism of the time. I encourage all Dodger fans and baseball fans in general to take a look at this entry of his. Dodger Thoughts has really become an outlet for all articulate, intelligent Dodger fans and if you are not familiar with it I STRONGLY urge you to start checking it out.. Ok just wanted to point it out to whoever is reading. Here's the link:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgerthoughts/2009/05/may-9.html#comments

Welcome to Paulywood? (cont'd)

I was going to write an entry this morning about the Dodgers "Magic Castle", as Vin so eloquently put it, but now something bigger has obviously come up. So now down to business.. My first thought: I am not shocked at all that Manny has used PED's. I am more shocked that he got caught in this new era of tests. I am not buying the whole "doctor's prescription" excuse. Manny got caught and now he has to deal with it. Since I love having Manny on the Dodgers, but am not in love with him like many Dodger fans, I am more concerned with what his loss means to the Dodgers. The timing is pretty bad, what with the Dodgers coming off the best home start in major league history. However, not all is lost Dodger fans. Bill Plaschke, the moron, is irate to the point that he wants Manny off of the Dodgers. This is what I hate about sportswriters, they are holier than thou on issues like this. But I digress from the true topic off of interest; mainly, how will the Dodgers stay afloat over this fifty game period? Here are a few of my thoughts:

• First off, the Dodgers need to realize that Juan Pierre is not the answer in left field. I mean, seriously, anyone but Pierre. Luckily, the Dodgers have some decent options who can probably pass as league average. Xavier Paul, the likely replacement for Manny, is a much better option than Pierre. Paul will outhit Pierre and has a much stronger arm in the outfield. In fact, Paul has been voted as the Dodgers best minor league arm by Baseball America multiple times. So I think he deserves the first shot. Now another viable option is calling Blake DeWitt up again and shifting Casey Blake to left field. Blake is no worse defensively in left than Manny and DeWitt is an upgrade over Blake at third. Either way, the Dodgers are going to have to find a way to maximize their potential lineup in any way possible, whether it be through upgrading the defense or the offense. One thing is for certain, Juan Pierre should not be given the opportunity. Having a left-fielder post a .650 OPS would sink the Dodgers' lineup faster than the iceberg sank the Titanic.
• The pitching will have waaaay more pressure on it now. Up til this point, keeping the team in the game until the offense came through was the pitching staff's M.O. Runs will now be harder to come by. It is going to be important for Hiroki Kuroda to come back healthy, and Kershaw, Wolf, and Stults are going to have to tighten the screws a bit. The starters need to get deeper into the games in order to keep the bullpen fresh. I will now go on record, after denying it all season so far, that the Dodgers NEED to add another starter somehow. Without Manny, the offense goes from best in the league to middle of the pack, and the onus is on the staff to step it up.
• Some good news: Martin is starting to heat up. If he can get back to his normal form, it will provide the Dodgers with a great boost. Also, Rafael Furcal is starting to get going and should return to his historical level of performance. Casey Blake, Matt Kemp, and James Loney will all need to play better as well. All three are more than capable. I don't really believe too much in lineup protection, but it will be interesting to see how Andre Ethier hits now with Manny out of the lineup.
• Other good news: It's only fifty games. Manny will be back on July 3rd. Now, how he will perform when he gets back is a fair question. But still, the Dodgers already have a 6 1/2 game lead on San Francisco. The Diamondbacks are a mess, and the Padres and Rockies are terrible. It's hard to imagine any team in the division playing higher than .600 ball ovet the next fifty games, so if the Dodgers can just level the storm and play .500 baseball, they will come out of this in first place. I am going to pretend that Manny suffered an injury, and hopefully his return for the second half of the season will provide a boost.
• It's going to be interesting to see the reaction of the fan to Manny now on. He was a God here, to the point that it actually annoyed the crap out of me. The hispanic demographic in Los Angeles really identified with him in a way not seen since Fernandomania. Will he be booed when he comes back? Will the fans support him? How will it be on the road (actually I know the answer to that one)? These are all intriguing questions.

The news today will either make or break the Dodgers' season. If the team can stick together and play well without Manny, his return will be a boost. If they fall apart and can't hold it together, it could get ugly really quick. I happen to think the Dodgers have enough talent to hold it together. ESPN may think the Dodgers only have one player, but Dodger fans know better. Now is the time for the rest of the team to show their talent. If the team can come together and get through this, I think it bodes well for the rest of the season. If not, it might not be fun to watch. This is definitely a bump in the road for the Dodgers, but don't think that it will necessarily send them flying off a cliff. With all the negative attention on the team, now is the time to shine for the Boys in Blue.. Please post your reactions below. I'm curious to see what people think.

P.S. Sorry for all the metaphors

Welcome to Paulywood?

Xavier Paul will make his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Unfortunately it's at the expense of Manny Ramirez who will be suspended for fifty games for Performance Enhancing Drugs. I can never say I am shocked when someone gets busted now, but it still is a bit surprising considering the timing. I'll have more later in the early afternoon. Check back in a bit..

NBA Conference Semifinal Preview

Back by popular demand (popular meaning Stong's wishes) come my NBA playoff predictions. So I had mixed results in the first round. I picked five out of eight series correctly (Lakers, Nuggets, Cavs, Celtics, Magic), and I had three series correctly picked in terms of games (Lakers, Cavs, Magic). I missed on the Mavs, Rockets, and Hawks. However, the only one I completely missed on was the Spurs-Mavs series. In retrospect, I completely forgot about Josh Howard when evaluating the Mavs and his health was the difference in the series. When he is healthy he makes them a much better team, and by not including him in my preview I made an egregious oversight. The Bulls-Celtics series was incredible and I think that the Bulls outplayed them for most of the series but made too many mistakes to win. Now on to the second round (I know the Nuggets-Mavs series already started but I have been busy and the result today just confirms who I was going to pick):

Western Conference:

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #5 Houston Rockets
Lakers in 5

Houston is a tough team to beat. They have two guys that can give Kobe fits at times in Shane Battier and Ron Artest. They have one of the toughest guys to guard in the league in Yao. Carl Landry, Luis Scola, and Chuck Hayes can all rebound the basketball, especially on the offensive end. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry make a solid 1-2 combo at the point. And former Laker Von Wafer has emerged this season as a good scorer off the bench. However, none of this will be enough to make the series last more than five games. The Lakers have too much depth for Houston. Between Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum, the Lakers have enough length to give Yao some trouble. And the Lakers' bigs will be able to beat Yao down court for easy buckets all series all the while wearing Yao down. Trevor Ariza has emerged as a reliable offensive player and he always wreaks havoc on the defensive end. Bynum should bounce back from his disappointing first round, and a matchup with a bigger center might help him as defending Boozer, Millsap, and Okur proved to be difficult for Andrew in the series against the Jazz. Then there is that Kobe fellow. Don't think he is taking Artest's comments that Brandon Roy is the best player he has played against lightly. I think we are going to see the quiet assassin Kobe that we saw in Game 4 in Utah. Add this all up and the Lakers will take care of business in five. I see the game winners going in this order: Lakers, Lakers, Rockets, Lakers, Lakers. I could even see the series ending up in a Lakers' sweep but I would be shocked if it went more than five games.

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks
Nuggets in 6

I am going to pretend like Game One didn't already happen. The Mavericks should put up a good fight in this series before ultimately falling short. Jason Kidd matches up well with Chauncey Billups as Billups is a bigger guard who won't kill Kidd with quickness. Josh Howard can also matchup with Carmelo Anthony and he will force Anthony to play on both ends of the floor. Dirk should be able to control his battle with Kenyon Martin. Jason Terry and J.R. Smith both provide firepower off their respective benches. So why am I picking Dallas to lose in six? Two reasons: One, Dallas just doesn't have the offensive weapons that Denver has. Between Billups, Anthony, Smith, and even Nene, Martin, and Linas Kleiza, the Nuggets have plenty of people who can score the basketball. Beyond Terry, Nowitzki, and Howard, the Mavs will have trouble scoring the rock. Second reason is home court advantage. Denver is a difficult place to play. The Nuggets have the luxury of playing four home games in the Mile High City and I think it is going to be difficult for Dallas to steal a game on the road. I do expect the series to be entertaining and I think most of the games will be close.

Eastern Conference:

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Atlanta Hawks
Cavs in 5

I believe that the Hawks have the skills and the athleticism to matchup with the Cavs. However, I don't think they have the mindset to win this series. It was apparent in their first round matchup with the Heat as they let a team with one good player(granted a damn good one) win three games. The Hawks don't play well on the road and, in case anyone forgot, the Cavs don't lose in their home arena. I think the Cavs can split in Atlanta and win their three home games. It will be intersting to see who the Hawks use on LeBron. My money is on Joe Johnson but I also think we might see a little bit of Josh Smith as well. The Hawks have a good team with Mike Bibby, Johnson, Smith, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams but their lack of focus and their inability to win on the road makes this series relatively easy to call.

#2 Boston Celtics vs. #3 Orlando Magic
Celtics in 7

All signs point to a Magic series win. But I can't go against the C's in this one. Dwight Howard will own the middle as the Celtics have a big man rotation of Big Baby Davis, Kendrick Perkins, Brian Scalabrine, and Mikki Moore. The Magic are also are great defensive team and can space the floor on offense with their outside shooting. Plus, the Celtics are going to be worn down from their classic series with the Bulls. Yet, I am picking the Celtics once again. They always seem to be able to come through when they need to. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will lead the way, and Rajon Rondo's emergence as an elite point guard will be huge in this series as he will control his matchup with Rafer Alston. Big Baby has been playing very well since KG's injury and Stephon Marbury should provide good minutes off the bench (just kidding). So while it appears the Magic should be the favorites in the series, I just think the Celtics will find a way to prevail. They have no shot of making it past the Cavs in the East, but their pride as champions will ultimately lead to a victory in this series.

There you have it. My second round predictions. As always, they are likely to go wrong..
Let me know your predictions in the comments below.. Thank you and GOOD NIGHT NOW!!

Dodgers Win but McDonald Struggles Again

The Dodgers were able to rally for two runs in the bottom of the seventh and another two in the eighth to give themselves a perfect home record in April. However, the biggest implication from the game is what it means for James McDonald. The young righty could not make it out of the second inning on Thursday night, and if it wasn't for a great effort from Jeff Weaver(?!?!) the Dodgers would have been in some serious trouble. The Dream Weaver came out of the pen and pitched four scoreless innings for the Boys in Blue. The Simi Valley High product was in vintage 2004-2005 form (vintage form for Weaver was roughly league average) and his strong performance saved the Dodgers last night.

Now the effect this has on the rotation seems fairly obvious. While I am a big fan of J-Mac, he isn't getting the job done. His 8.16 ERA isn't even the biggest issue. The biggest issues are twofold.. One, he isn't getting deep enough into games. He hasn't pitched more than five innings in any of his four starts, and he only went five once. In two of his starts he was not able to make it out of the third. He is putting too much stress on the bullpen for him to continue to get the ball. The second biggest issue is the cause of the first issue and it is the fact that he is just walking way too many batters. He has walked nearly a batter an inning so far this season while striking out less than 4.5 batters per nine innings. He is allowing way too many baserunners and all the deep counts get his pitch count up so high to the point that he can't go deep into games. Although Torre wouldn't say after the game that McDonald was out of the rotation, I don't see him making his next scheduled start on Tuesday. Chances are that Weaver will make the start. I don't think he is the answer for the long run but in the short run he can pitch effectively enough to keep the Dodgers in the game. As for McDonald, I think the bullpen is a better solution to the problem than a demotion to Triple A. He is obviously pressing but I don't think he can get any better by going down to the minors. He is 24 years old and he is at the stage in his development where he needs to make big league adjustments. I think he will do that. It just might take some time. In the meantime, his versatility out of the 'pen can give the Dodgers some intriguing options. With J-Mac, Kuo, Belisario and Broxton the Dodgers have power arms in their pen and they have guys who can go multiple innings. Add in Troncoso, Wade, and Ohman and the bully is shaping up really nice. I believe that McDonald will eventually be a starter. I was a supporter of him winning the fifth-starter competiton out of spring. But he needs to get both his concentration and his confidence higher. Right now, in the best interests of both parties, he needs to pitch out of the bullpen. However, don't be suprised to see him back in the rotation by the middle of the year. He has always been a starter and that's where he will end up again. His future is bright and I, for one, am excited to see him develop as a Dodger.