With opening night less than 18 hours away, I thought now would be the perfect time to post my 2009 MLB predictions. So without further adieu, I bring to you my predictions for each division as well as my picks for the major awards:
NL West: W- L:
Los Angeles Dodgers 89-73
Arizona Diamondbacks 87-75
San Francisco Giants 80-82
San Diego Padres 71-91
Colorado Rockies 70-92
Summary: The Dodgers lineup will prove to be the difference in the West this year as no other team in the division can match it. The D’Backs have a good young lineup with breakout candidate Justin Upton as a player to watch. The Giants have the best pitching staff in the division with reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, unlucky Matt Cain, as well as Randy Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito. The Padres are in payroll slashing mode but having Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez should help the team finish ahead of the rebuilding Rockies.
NL Central: W- L:
Chicago Cubs 94-68
St. Louis Cardinals 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers 84-78
Cincinnati Reds 77-85
Houston Astros 73-89
Pittsburgh Pirates 69-93
Summary: The Cubs are clearly the class of the division with a strong lineup and a very good pitching staff. They resigned Ryan Dempster and their pitching staff goes four deep with Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and injury prone but explosive Rich Harden. Offensively they added switch hitter Milton Bradley who should give their right handed heavy lineup some balance. The Brewers and Cardinals should be competitive but neither team will give the Cubs a real scare. The Reds have a decent staff for once, but their lineup isn’t very good. The Astros have nothing behind Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman, and the Pirates are the Pirates.
NL East: W- L:
Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
New York Mets 90-72
Atlanta Braves 85-77
Florida Marlins 78-84
Washington Nationals 76-86
Summary: The NL East should be a very competitive division which I project ending in a tie. The defending champion Phillies lost Pat Burrell and replaced him with Raul Ibanez. The Mets have decent starting pitching led by perennial Cy Young Award candidate Johan Santana, and they added J.J. Putz and Frankie Rodriguez to stabilize the back end of their bullpen. The Braves added Javier Vasquez and Derek Lowe to their much improved rotation, but their offense just won’t be enough unless Chipper Jones stays healthy and Yunel Escobar has a breakout year offensively. Florida should be better than expected but overall the team is just too young. Washington will be much improved but they have a glut of outfielders and need to figure out that situation and must add a couple of arms before they make it out of the cellar in the East.
AL West: W- L:
Los Angeles Angels 85-77
Oakland Athletics 81-81
Texas Rangers 72-90
Seattle Mariners 71-91
Summary: The Angels outplayed their run differential last season and that should catch up to them this year. The early season losses of John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar will hurt too. However, they have the pitching depth to withstand it for the short run. Their offense will miss Mark Teixeira but Bobby Abreu will infuse the lineup with some much needed OBP. The A’s improved this winter with their trade for Matt Holliday, and they also signed Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra. However their pitching staff will be reliant on two rookies (Anderson and Cahill) and they will be without Justin Duchscherer for a while, so I don’t think it bodes well for them. Texas is still missing the quality arms at the big league level and Seattle doesn’t know if it’s coming or going so neither team will play a factor in the race out west.
AL Central: W- L:
Cleveland Indians 89-73
Chicago White Sox 86-76
Detroit Tigers 80-82
Minnesota Twins 78-84
Kansas City Royals 70-92
Summary: The Indians might not have a great pitching staff, but Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona are a solid one-two punch. A lineup anchored by Grady Sizemore, and a healthy Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner should score enough runs to win the division and their pickup of Mark DeRosa is an under the radar addition that should help immensely. The White Sox will prove to be their toughest competition, especially if John Danks and Gavin Floyd continue to improve. The Tigers have a good lineup but way too many question marks in their rotation. Minnesota would be higher but the uncertain status of Joe Mauer ruins their chances. If they lose Mauer for an extended time period they can kiss 2009 goodbye. The Royals needed OBP in their lineup and instead they added Mike Jacobs and his .299 OBP. They will remain irrelevant for the time being.
AL East: W- L:
Boston Red Sox 97-65
New York Yankees 96-66
Tampa Bay Rays 89-73
Toronto Blue Jays 70-92
Baltimore Orioles 68-94
Summary: This one was the toughest to call. At the end of the day I think the Red Sox added pitching depth makes the difference. They also have fewer question marks than the Yankees and seem to fit together better. The additions of John Smoltz and Brad Penny were great signings and their rotation as a result is mighty impressive. The Yankees should win 130 games on paper but in real life there will be some obstacles. Can Posada catch everyday? Can they get enough at-bats for Nick Swisher? What’s Hideki Matsui’s role? Will Sabathia hold up after pitching a 1960’s like 515 innings over the past two seasons? Will A-Rod’s hip hold up? Overall, the Yanks have too much talent not to make the postseason. The Rays would probably win any other division in baseball but in the AL East they will finish third. The Blue Jays rotation is decimated with injuries and Matt Wieters can’t save the day for the O’s just yet.
Individual Awards:
NL MVP: Chase Utley
Pujols is always a candidate, but if Utley can shake off his hip surgery over the winter I think he has a good chance with his great offense and good defense at a scarce position.
AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
Sizemore is tremendous. He hits for power, gets on base, and plays amazing defense at an incredibly important position. I think he is underappreciated and this is the year he gets his real publicity.
NL Cy Young: Brandon Webb
Webb was the frontrunner in some circles for the Cy Young last year until his disastrous final month and a half. This year I think he holds off Johan Santana and finishes the deal and wins his second Cy.
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
Jon Lester posted a tremendous 144 ERA+ last year. I expect him to pick up a good amount of wins (always a requisite for the BBWAA voters), and he should increase his strikeout total. Plus he pitches in Boston and we know how that East Coast bias works…
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
Matt Wieters has tremendous potential. My only doubt is whether he will be called up soon enough to accumulate enough counting stats (HR, RBI, etc.) to get the voters’ attention. However, the lack of another obvious alternative makes him the favorite this year.
NL Rookie of the Year: James McDonald
McDonald might not be spectacular but he will probably get close to 30 starts if he stays healthy. If he gets 12-15 wins and posts a sub 4 ERA I think he takes home the hardware.
Playoffs:
NLDS: Dodgers over Phillies
Cubs over Mets
ALDS: Red Sox over Angels
Yankees over Indians
NLCS: Cubs over Dodgers
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
World Series: Red Sox over Cubs
So there you have it. My predictions, as always, are likely to be wrong. Please feel free to ridicule my predictions or post your own picks in the comments below. I'm a strong boy, I can take the abuse.
A few comments:
ReplyDelete- I think the Dodgers win by more than 2 games and break the 90-W barrier. I have a feeling that many teams will become sellers this year due to the economy and the Dodgers will pick up a top pitcher (along the lines of Peavy, Halladay, etc). Just pray that the deal doesn't set back the minor league system several years.
- I think the Cubs are the class of the Central, but there isn't a lot of competition. Zambrano looked much leaner today, so maybe he won't have his typical post-ASB letdown. I'd be worried about Harden's health if I was a Cub fan. And can Dempster really repeat his ridiculous '08?
- I think the best race in the NL is in the east (and possibly in baseball if not for the AL East). The Mets filled the holes that led to their choke job last year - - the bullpen. If K-Rod stays healthy, the Mets' 8th/9th combo is almost as good as Kuo/Broxton ;). I think the Mets win the East and the Phils take the WC. However, I do think that the Braves are going to compete well....their pitching is pretty good and Kawakami will be interesting to watch.
- No comments on the AL.
- I would love for McDonald to take down the ROY, but I think that will end up going to Jordan Schafer or Cameron Maybin.
- I like your playoff predictions. Fox would love your WS matchup. But I'm going to say Red Sox/Dodgers WS with the Sox taking home the trophy. Dodgers in 2010.
- I went a little light on the Dodgers win total. I think they have a good shot of winning 90+ games but I am imagining some type of issues will crop up. Ideally it won't happen but I wanted to kind of hedge my bet in a sense.
ReplyDelete-I agree completely with your assessment of the NL Central. I know Dempster will probably regress and Harden is a question mark but it doesn't matter because the division is just average. I do like the Cards to be decent if Carpenter can hold up but they just don't have enough to compete for a playoff spot.
- The Phils to me seem to be a team that might underacheive but I like their lineup so much (especially Utley and Werth) that I think they will be alright as long as Hamels holds up. I like the Mets too since they solved the pen issues. I'm also a big Beltran fan and think he is way better than alot of people realize. I agree that the Braves are pretty good. I think if everything goes right for them that they are a darkhorse in the East.
-My J Mac pick was almost a pick by default. I don't think Schaefer is ready to contribute full time yet and Maybin, as good as he is, just seems to me to be a little outmatched at this point in time. Although I am backtracking a bit on that pick because rookies of the year tend to never be pitchers (although Nomo took it in '95 I believe)