2010 MLB Preview

With tonight’s Yankees/ Red Sox game, the 2010 MLB season is officially upon us. Last year, I stretched my MLB preview into two parts. This year, I’ve decided to condense my preview into a single post. So strap yourself in and get ready, it’s time for baseball. Without further ado, I bring to you my 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers preview followed by my 2010 MLB season predictions. Enjoy:

2010 Dodgers Position by Position

C- Russell Martin
I don’t know what has happened to Russell. He followed up a strong rookie campaign in 2006 with a superb 2007 season in which he hit .293/.374/.469 with 19 homers and 87 RBI. He was also an All-Star, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove winner. Considering it was his age-24 season, it was reasonable to expect similar years in the future. He started strong in 2008 before tailing off considerably in the second half. Combine that with his staggering drop in power over the last year and a half and it becomes fairly evident that Martin is an enigma. Martin struggled to a .250/.352/.329 line last year. He also had considerable trouble behind the plate for the first time in his career, as the Dodgers gave up an inordinate amount of wild pitches. Two things give me optimism over Martin’s upcoming 2010 season though: 1. Despite his drop in batting average and power, Martin’s walk rate remained pretty consistent with previous years. He is still working the count and taking good at-bats. Despite his horrid offensive year (by his previous standards), Martin still had value as a catcher who could get on base. There are not many guys like that in baseball. 2. Martin’s power drop can be explained by his precipitous drop in fly ball/HR ratio. Over the previous years, Martin was around 6.7%, meaning that 6.7% of the fly balls he hit ended up as home runs. Last year, the number dropped to 3.9%. This gives me hope that Martin can regain some of his power. It may not be to the extent of his 2007 numbers, but I think he can hit 15 homers with a strong OBP. That would give him good value.

1B- James Loney
I labeled 2009 a make-or-break year for James Loney. He then proceeded to put up similar power numbers to 2008. While my “make-or-break” statement was probably premature at the time, I feel like this year has to be the step forward for James. As he continues to get salary raises through arbitration, it becomes imperative for Loney to increase his power production. He needs to hit around 20 homers to make his salary worth it. There are a ton of first basemen in the big leagues, and almost all of them are power hitters. Loney needs to make the progression. Despite the lack of power, Loney’s 2009 had some positive signs. His increasing walk rate, coupled with a declining strike out rate indicates to me that he has a good feel for the strike zone (he tallied 70 walks to 68 strikeouts). This reminds me of Andre Ethier’s 2008 season, which just happened to be right before Andre busted out his career year in 2009. It seems reasonable that Loney can put up a .300/.370/.450 line this year. While not spectacular, those numbers would represent an upgrade and would give me hope for his progression. Amazingly, Loney is still only 25 years old. He is a big guy with a ton of strength. He does need to improve, but that can be said about anyone. I see signs that point to a breakout season, but we’ll have to find out over the next six months if he makes those improvements.

2B- Blake DeWitt
DeWitt was on a two-way shuttle between Los Angeles and Albuquerque in 2009. Honestly, there is not much to draw on from last season, other than the fact that he is a professional who never complained. Management loves DeWitt’s makeup, so much so that they traded the second basemen of the future, Tony Abreu, for one month of Jon Garland last August. In both his minor league career, and his brief major league career, DeWitt has shown that he has moderate power with good plate discipline. He won’t hit for a high average, but he does tend to grind out at-bats, which is a great thing for a guy slated to hit at the bottom of the order. DeWitt is a bit of a contradiction in that his bat plays better at second base, but his glove is better at third. Despite that, I think he can play average defense at second. DeWitt will be handled with care, as I expect newcomer Jamey Carroll and September star Ronnie Belliard to get a decent amount of work at second. Nonetheless, DeWitt can probably put up a .270/.350/.400 line at second, which I think the Dodgers would have to be thrilled with. I think the Dodgers made the right decision naming him their starter and I expect him to produce at an above-average level at second.

SS- Rafael Furcal
Furcal is another enigma heading into the 2010 season. Raffy finally stayed healthy for an entire season, the first time since his first year with the Dodgers in 2006. Yet, he never seemed to get comfortable with the bat. He finished the year with a .269/.335/.375 line. Despite this, he still had value as he had his finest defensive season as a Dodger. Raffy finished second in the National League in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating- a stat that measures runs saved over the course of a season in comparison to an average defender). And the fact that he stayed healthy all season was a good sign in itself. I think the Dodgers should continue to use kid gloves with Furcal, resting him once a week until later in the season. I’d say it’s reasonable to expect a .280/.350/.400 line from Raffy, which combined with his stellar defense at the demanding shortstop position, would be great.

3B- Casey Blake
The Beard that no longer is. A clean-shaven Casey Blake will take the field for the Dodgers on Monday. Blake had a solid 2009 campaign, with a line of .280/ .363/ .468. Casey was red-hot for the first half of the season before tailing off in the second half. Despite that, I became very impressed with Blake as a player. I have been hard on him in the past, but I think as a bottom of the order hitter (6th, 7th, or 8th) he is a great option. Blake will hit about 20 homers and get on base at a decent clip. He will also play good defense at third (Casey finished 3rd in UZR among NL 3rd basemen). I’d say you could do a lot worse at 3rd base than Casey Blake.

LF- Manny Ramirez
Time to talk about the lightning rod himself, “El Maniaco” Manny Ramirez. We all know what Manny did for the Dodgers in 2008, and we all know what transpired in 2009. Despite Manny’s struggles he still finished with a .290 ./418/.531 batting line. There are now two camps when the topic of Ramirez gets mentioned. The first camp believes Manny is done and that the Dodgers should have kept Juan Pierre and played him over Ramirez. The second camp believes Manny will bounce back and have anywhere from a good to an incredible year. Put me in the second camp. Firmly. I expect Manny to have a pretty big season for the Dodgers. Like, .300/.400/.550 with 30 homers, big. Manny’s problems last season, in my opinion (it’s my blog, who else’s opinion would I use), stemmed not from lack of steroids but rather lack of timing. Missing 50 games absolutely killed him. His timing has been noticeably better this spring, and I think pitchers will be sorry if the continue to challenge him with fastballs on the inside corner. I’m expecting Manny to have a great walk year before riding off into the sunset (or the American League) after the season.

CF- Matt Kemp
Kemp’s praises have been sung by me on many occasions (just check the blog archives). Kemp had his breakout year in 2009 with a .297/.352/.490 line, 26 homers, 34 stolen bases, and a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger to boot. Despite all of this, Kemp still has room to grow, and his second-half struggles are an indication of this fact. He has increased his walk rate every season and his strike out rate needs to continue to decrease. I’d really like to see Kemp finish with around 65 walks this season. “The Bison” will always hit for average, so an upward tick in free passes drawn would do wonders for his OBP. I also expect Kemp’s power to continue to develop. He flashed his power in spurts last year (including a stretch in late August where he homered in 4 straight games). I think he should hit around 30 this year. The bottom line with Kemp is this: If he continues to progress as a hitter, he should be the Dodgers best player in 2010. His combination of power, average, speed and defensive ability make Kemp a true 5-tool star. I expect big things in 2010.

RF- Andre Ethier
What a 2009 for Andre. He became a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat and had a magical run of walk-off hits. Dre finished with a .272/.361/.508 line, 31 homers and 106 RBI and took home a Silver Slugger in honor of his breakout year. He was rewarded in the offseason with a two year contract worth $15 million. Andre’s approach at the plate is a pleasure to watch when he is going well, as he battles and fights before getting a pitch he can hit. Ethier had his typical massive slump (this one mostly occurred in May), but he more than made up for it in the other five months. As I discussed before, I believe Ethier will always be a hot-and-cold hitter. Despite that, he is a great hitter. Andre appeared to struggle on defense last season (finishing second to last in the NL in UZR), but I think a lot of that can be attributed to Orlando Hudson ranging into right field to make plays. I believe he can be an average fielder in right. I don’t expect much improvement offensively from Ethier, but if he has a 2010 similar to his 2009 then the Dodgers have to be happy. I predict a .280/.370/.520 line from Andre with 30 homers.



Starting Pitching

LHP- Clayton Kershaw
2009 was a breakout year for Clayton Kershaw. Beginning in May, Kershaw went on an amazing run. Despite a great year, he had little to show for it in the win column. Clayton was winless after July 18th even though his ERA was outstanding at 2.79. Kershaw injured his non-throwing shoulder shagging fly balls during batting practice. He missed three weeks as a result, although I believe the injury was a blessing in disguise as it limited Kershaw’s innings in only his second year. In spite of Clayton’s sparkling ERA there were still some issues. He continued to walk too many hitters, with a BB/9 of 4.8 He also had a below average BABIP (.276), meaning that he had some luck which contributed to his league leading batting average against (.200) and hits per 9 innings (6.9). So while Kershaw might have a regression in his ERA and batting average against, I expect continued progress. He struck out over a batter an inning (9.7) which is a great indicator of the trouble hitters have with him. As the pitch count reigns loosen, he’ll start to pitch deeper into games. I also believe he will begin to limit his walks. The development of a slider in the middle of last year helped him greatly, and as he continues to develop his changeup he will become tougher to hit. The sky is the limit for the 22-year-old and I anticipate a big season from the Dodgers best pitcher.

RHP- Chad Billingsley
The only guy on the Dodgers who might be more polarizing than Manny Ramirez is Chad Billingsley. Some people think Chad lacks intestinal fortitude and they cite his poor 2008 NLCS and bad second half of 2009 as evidence. Others point to his strong 2008 NLDS start as evidence to the contrary and blame injuries for his subpar second half of the 2009 season. I align with the latter group. Chad had a drastic fall from grace from 2009 All-Star to playoff rotation after thought. This just doesn’t happen without reason. Chad obviously struggled with his mechanics which is a direct result of him overcompensating for his hamstring injuries. I don’t like to play amateur psychologist, and personally I think it’s too easy to say “Billingsley is mentally weak”. Chad still finished 2009 with an ERA around league average (4.03), and I look forward to him silencing the doubters with a good season in 2010. Billingsley does need to lower his walk total (86 in 196.1 innings), but that can be said for many pitchers. I think Bills will finish 2010 with over 15 wins, 200 innings, and an ERA between 3.2 and 3.5. Yet, nothing will matter to his detractors until he does something in October. I hope he gets his chance at redemption, although I believe he has nothing to prove.

RHP- Hiroki Kuroda
Kuroda had a rollercoaster of a 2009 season. He was the Dodgers Opening Day Starter in San Diego. He won that game, but was shelved until the beginning of June with an oblique injury. After returning, Kuroda pitched extremely well until the middle of August, when he was drilled in the head by a line drive in Arizona. Amazingly, Kuroda was able to come back in September and pitch effectively before making an ill-fated start in the NLCS. Kuroda finished 2009 with a 3.76 ERA in 117.1 innings. He’ll never strike out a ton of batters (just 6.1 K/9 in his career) but he limits his walks (2.0 BB/9 in his career). Looking forward to 2010, I’d say that Kuroda holds the keys to the Dodgers pitching success. If he is healthy and effective, he can be a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation. If not, the Dodgers will be scrambling to find pitching. I don’t know what to expect from Kuroda, but I’m hoping for good results.

RHP- Vicente Padilla
A scrapheap pickup in August, Padilla came to the Dodgers amidst rumblings that he was a bad teammate. In Los Angeles, Padilla pitched effectively through the playoffs until Game 5 of the NLCS in Philadelphia. Padilla went 4-0 for the Dodgers with a 3.20 ERA in seven regular season starts. I say proceed with caution for 2010. Padilla is not a strikeout pitcher (6.2 K/9 for his career) and he has been known to have meltdowns. Don’t be fooled into think Padilla is any kind of ace just because he is starting on Opening Day. He is the Dodgers’ fourth best pitcher and this should become apparent awfully soon.

RHP- Charlie Haeger
Haeger has won the fifth-starter competition and is looking to perform in his first extended major league action. I like Haeger and think he has a chance to be solid. The knuckleballer is a change of pace from the rest of the Dodgers’ hard throwing staff. However, I think last year proved that having an official fifth starter is overrated. The Dodgers consistently won when someone other than the big four of Wolf, Billingsley, Kuroda, or Kershaw started despite having everyone short of Jimmy Beasley starting for them (those that know me will appreciate the Jimmy Beasley joke). So while I like Haeger, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is one of many that takes a turn as the Dodgers’ fifth starter.



Bench
Garrett Anderson and Ronnie Belliard will provide the primary pinch hitting duties for the Dodgers in 2010. Brad Ausmus will back up Russell Martin at catcher. Jamey Carroll is a solid utility infielder and a decent OBP guy at the plate. Reed Johnson takes over 4th outfielder duties from Juan Pierre and he’ll provide good defensive as well as a threat against left handed pitching. The Dodgers bench appears to be improved from last year. I think they have good balance and I like the Carroll and Johnson signings.

Bullpen
Rule 5 Draft pick Carlos Monasterios will provide long relief for the Dodgers. Jeff Weaver will be another swing guy who can pitch in jams, long relief, or make spot start. Both Russ Ortiz and Ramon Ortiz have made the team, but I’d say they are spot holders for the injured Hong-Chih Kuo and late arriving Ronald Belisario. Don’t expect the Ortizes to make meaningful contributions. The top of the bullpen is excellent with Ramon Troncoso, George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton. The bullpen should once again be a strength for the Dodgers throughout the season. Broxton will continue to thrive and should be an All-Star again.



2010 Outlook:
The 2009 NL West Champions stood pat all winter. The only significant change to the lineup was the subtraction of Orlando Hudson. The offense should continue to be strong this year with the continued progression of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier as well as Manny’s return to form. Randy Wolf took a three-year deal to pitch in Milwaukee, leaving the Dodgers a little thin in the pitching department. The Dodgers re-signed Vicente Padilla and are going to need big contributions (ie: innings) from him this season. If Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley step up, the Dodgers rotation should be good enough to win the division.

Predictions:
Record: 93-69 (1st in the NL)
MVP: Matt Kemp
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Breakout Player: James Loney
Minor Leaguer Most Likely to Contribute: Josh Lindblom

2010 MLB Predictions
NL West Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Central Champions: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East Champions: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Wild Card: Colorado Rockies

AL West Champions: Texas Rangers
AL Central Champions: Minnesota Twins
AL East Champions: New York Yankees
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox

World Series: Red Sox over Phillies

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL MVP: Joe Mauer

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester

NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward
AL Rookie of the Year: Austin Jackson

"Lollygagging" Lakers End Lackluster Roadtrip at 2-3

Kobe Bryant labeled his Lakers teammates "lollygaggers" after their disappointing loss in New Orleans on Monday. Unfortunately, I think lollygagging is only one of the ills that the Lakers need to cure in time for the playoffs. Despite their impressive win in San Antonio last week, the Lakers never seemed to gain their footing on this roadie and lost by an average over 14 points a game to Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Atlanta. In retrospect, the Lakers only played 3 quarters of good basketball during the entire trip (the 2nd half in San Antonio and the 2nd quarter in Houston). There are now valid concerns about the Lakers ability to repeat as championship after failing this last test. John Hollinger of espn.com has laid out the Lakers' issues twice over the last few days. I agree with a lot of what Hollinger has to say about the team. Let's take a look at a few of the Lakers' problems, in no particular order:

• Point guard play has become a serious issue- Even though this has been a weak spot the Lakers have overcome for the last two years, it finally seems as if their lack of production from the point guard spot has become a major problem. Not only is Derek Fisher not helping the team, I'd make the case that he actually hurts the team. I love Fish, but it's getting tiresome watching opposing point guards light him up. And his 37.6% field goal percentage ranks him near the bottom of qualified players. Take a look at the game logs of opposing point guards during the road trip: In San Antonio George Hill went off for 21 points. In Oklahoma City Russell Westbrook had 23 points. Laker killer Aaron Brooks scored 26 in Houston. The Hornets' Darren Collison and Chris Paul combined for 32 points and 16 assists, and Atlanta's Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford combined for 26 points. To be fair, not all of this is Fisher's fault. The Lakers consistently struggle in defending the pick-and-roll, and it is a team wide issue. But Fisher exacerbates the problem with his inability to stay in front of opposing guards and his continued problems attempting to fight through picks. D Fish's lack of scoring ability further complicates everything since the opposing point guards basically get a the night off defensively when they play the Lakers. Unfortunately for the Lakers, backup Jordan Farmar has been up-and-down all season and has not been able to wrestle the starting job away from Fisher. That being said, it would prudent for the Lakers to give Farmar upwards of 25-30 minutes from here on out as he is the best point guard on the team both in terms of defensive prowess and scoring ability. (UPDATE: For some reason I forgot to mention this in the original post, but this is why I was such a proponent of the potential Kirk Hinrich trade. Hinrich is a good defensive player who can defend both guard positions well. He would add flexibility to the roster in that he can play both off the ball and as a point. While his overall field goal percentage leaves something to be desired (40% this year, 41.4% for his career), he is a good 3 point shooter (37.7% for his career) and on the Lakers his main job offensively would be to knock down open jump shots. I was very disappointed when this deal didn't go down, but I think the Lakers were lulled into a false sense of security after their good first half of the season).
  
• The Lakers lack the necessary depth of a title team- Andrew Bynum's injury has exposed the Lakers lack of depth. When Bynum is healthy, Lamar Odom comes off the bench and the second unit has a decent core of Odom, Shannon Brown, and Jordan Farmar. The Lakers were surviving with an eight-man rotation. Now with Bynum out, Lamar is forced to start and the Lakers have little depth. This was readily apparent throughout the road trip. Starters were forced to play extended minutes because the "Bench Mob" couldn't get the job done. Without Bynum, coach Phil Jackson is forced to call upon the likes of Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga to fill some of the frontcourt minutes. As much as I love Congo Cash, it is not a good sign for the team when he is in the rotation. Hopefully with the return of Bynum and the imminent return of Luke Walton, the second unit can start to play better. In turn, the starters will be able to get more rest. It is a win-win situation. During the Lakers' run to the Finals in 2008, the Lakers had one of the best benches in the NBA. Last year, the bench was not great but was good enough to win it all. This year, their play has been disappointing. The Lakers will need more production from the second unit going forward to have any chances of playing into June.
  
• Kobe is not the Kobe of old- Fans of the Lakers will not want to hear this, but it appears as if the Black Mamba is slowing down a bit. Either as a result of age or injuries (or a combination of both), Kobe has had his least efficient offensive season in years. As Hollinger notes in his article, while Kobe's per-game numbers remain similar to previous years, his points per minute and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) are down. I won't spend too much time on this as Kobe is still a great player, but there is a legitimate question of whether Kobe can carry the Lake Show through the playoffs. I wouldn't bet against him, but the question still remains.
• The Lakers Still Lack Energy and Effort- The most disheartening problem is the fact that the Lakers still haven't been able to play with consistent effort. They are often outworked by lesser teams and some nights don't seem to bother showing up (see: Oklahoma City). This is especially concerning as they are being challenged and have yet to rise to the challenge. They rarely blow teams out (just one double-digit win since the All-Star Break) and sometimes coast enough to pull out the win. The Lakers have also been blown out by teams a lot this year. A team as good as the Lakers should not have that happen. I don't think this Lakers team is anything like the '01 team in terms of the ability to flip the switch when the playoffs start. I initially thought this was the case, but after watching this team for 75 games, I just don't think they will be able to do it. I still think the Lakers can win it all, but it is going to have to start with hard work and consistent effort. Unlike past championship seasons, this team is not talented enough to rely solely on ability to get it done. They have their backs against the wall, so it is time for them to come out swinging and prove to everyone what they are capable of.
  

Time is running out on the regular season. The Lakers have to find their identity before the playoffs start, as their first round opponent will likely be much stronger than the typical #8 seed. 4 of the Lakers next 7 games are going to be good tests. The Lakers host Utah and San Antonio before going on the road to play Denver and lowly Minnesota. After that they return to Staples Center for games against Portland, Sacramento and the Clippers. They need to treat these games as building blocks for the playoffs. Everyone knows the Lakers can still repeat as champions, but it is becoming less and less likely with each lackluster outing. If they are going to make a deep playoff run, the rest of the regular season is going to have to be the starting point. I have lost some faith in this team, but I hope they prove the doubters wrong.

Why the Rams Should Draft Sam Bradford Number One Overall

With April nearly upon us, expect NFL draft coverage to become even more pervasive. Mock drafts will be everywhere, and every talking head will debate which players should go to what teams. So it's time for me to put my two cents in. As a lifelong Rams fan, I'm excited for the possibility that they might draft a good quarterback this year. Although the Rams left Los Angeles after 1994 season, I still root for them every year. It is not at the level of my passion for the Lakers and Dodgers, but I do consider myself a fan. The last pro football game I attended was in 1994 when the Rams lost to the Raiders at Anaheim Stadium. And while I prefer these uniforms over these uniforms, and this logo to this logo, it's hard for me to not get excited about my boyhood team. So I bring to you my reasons for the Rams drafting Sam Bradford number one overall:

Amidst the Rams awfulness last year, there were a few bright spots. James Laurinaitis, Chris Long, and Oshiomogho Atogwe are each good young players with bright futures (Atogwe's free agent limbo notwithstanding). So despite their horrible record, the Rams still had a tough defense, but their offense was so bad that they didn't stand a chance. The defense would keep them in games before finally wearing down in the second half after the offense would fail to move the ball. Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo is a fiery leader and a great defensive coach, so I expect the Rams to continue to improve defensively.

Now the other side of the ball was a different story. The Rams drafted offensive tackle Jason Smith with the number two overall pick after seriously contemplating taking Mark Sanchez. While that might be a smart move over the long haul, the quarterback position was an enormous black hole all season long. Mark Bulger struggled before getting injured. Kyle Boller did his best Kyle Boller impression. And 6th round draft pick Keith Null looked intimidated and overmatched. The Rams have rebuilt the offensive line over the last few years, and while the line is still not good, it is at least a respectable unit. With Steven Jackson still a top running back, now would be the time to draft a quarterback. Sam Bradford injured his shoulder last season after a Heisman winning year as a sophomore in 2008. If Bradford's shoulder continues to check out okay, he should be the Rams guy. Bradford has a very accurate arm and can make the short to medium passes with consistency. He is also a big body, standing 6'4" and weighing in at 236 pounds at his pro day on Monday. He has above average arm strength and mobility, and led Oklahoma to the BCS National Championship game in 2008. So it appears that Bradford has everything it takes to be a good quarterback at the NFL level. He took most of his snaps out of the shotgun in college, but with his feel for the game I don't expect him to struggle adapting to playing under center. The one question mark is the condition of his shoulder, but if team doctors feel comfortable with his progress then it is worth the risk.

The other main reason for drafting Bradford is the paucity of others worth being selected number one. Ndamukong Suh is a beast, but with the Rams being so bad on offensive it is not smart for them to commit 40 million dollars to a defensive tackle. The same thing can be said for Bradford's teammate at Oklahoma, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. The draft's quarterback options, while deep, are not top heavy. Guys like Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow might turn out to be solid pros, but are not worth drafting number one overall. For that reason, I think Bradford makes the most sense for the Rams.

Chances are the Rams will draft Bradford number one. But they do have a few other options if they decide they want to do something different. They could always trade down, draft a different player, and take a quarterback like McCoy in the second round. They could also decide Suh's potential as a defensive disruptor is too much to pass up. But I doubt they will. Sam Bradford has the talent to become a very good quarterback for the Rams. Here's hoping they make right decision in New York City on April 22nd.