MLB Preview Part I: Dodgers season preview

With the Dodgers returning to Los Angeles to take on the Angels in the lone game of the Freeway Series, I decided to put together my predictions for the Dodgers 2009 season. The 25 man roster is subject to change in the next 24-48 hours, but my 25 man roster is what I think the Dodgers will do after final cuts, not what I think they should do. So I bring to you my Dodgers season preview:

25 Man Roster:

C: Russell J. Martin, Brad Ausmus
Martin has been to consecutive All-Star Games and is one of the best catchers in all of baseball. Yet, I feel like he can be better. He posted a strong OBP last year (.385) and his 90 walks are very impressive. However, he experienced a severe dip in Slugging % (.469 in 2007 to .396 in 2008) despite only suffering a modest dip in Batting Average. I expect Martin’s power to jump back up to his 2007 form and if he combines that with his improved OBP, he could easily be the 2009 Dodger MVP. Brad Ausmus is a no-hit backup who will probably only get a handful of at-bats every month. GM Ned Colletti believes Ausmus impact will be more on the pitchers and young players and so if he helps there than I guess he is worth having around.

1B: James Loney, Doug Mientkiewicz
Loney turns 25 early on in what I believe will be a make-or-break season for him as a Dodger. After having an impressive half season in 2007 (.331/.381/.538) with 15 HR’s in only 344 at-bats, James suffered through an equally unimpressive 2008 (.289/.338/.434) including only 13 HR’s in 595 at-bats. Loney will never hit for big power but if he can get to around 20 bombs with gap power and a .800+ OPS I think he could be valuable this year. Mientkiewicz is a Joe Torre favorite who possesses a good glove and can play some 3rd base and the corner OF spots. He isn’t a great hitter and doesn’t have much power (career .405 SLG) but he can post a solid OBP (.360 in his career) and should be a decent option as a pinch hitter.

2B: Orlando Hudson, Mark Loretta
The O-Dog (I can’t wait to hear Vin say that all year) is an above-average offensive 2nd baseman. After his trade to Arizona before the 2006 season, he became a good hitter and can post a good OBP (.367 last year and .376 in 2007) and should hit for average. However, I worry that his wrist injury that ended his season last year (dislocation) will affect his offense this year. I think he might struggle offensively to start the season but as he completely heals I expect another good year from him. Defensively Hudson has above-average range on groundballs and amazing range on pop-ups. He is a complete upgrade from the retired Jeff Kent and should form a good DP combo with Rafael Furcal. Mark Loretta is a good pinch hitting option who will hit for average and should kill lefties (.904 OPS last year) and he will probably play every infield position at least once this year.

SS: Rafael Furcal, Juan Castro
Rafael Furcal should be nicknamed “The Big Question Mark”. Can his back hold up? Can he still be effective over 162 games? Who will replace him if he goes down for an extended period of time? How much rest does he need to stay healthy? All these questions are legitimate concerns. This is what we know: When healthy Furcal is an impact player at a key position. The Dodgers have struggled to replace him in the past and with big time prospect Ivan DeJesus out until at least August, they might have an issue replacing him again. If the Dodgers can get 130 games out of Furcal, they will be fine. Anything less and I think it becomes an issue. Look for Torre to really monitor Raffy’s playing time early on. Juan Castro is just additional shortstop depth, and I don’t expect him to be on the roster all season. He can’t hit (career .599 OPS) and his strong spring is most likely a mirage in the Arizona desert. Look for Chin-Lung Hu to eventually be the backup SS this season.

3B: Casey Blake
Casey Blake is a completely average baseball player. Average bat, average glove, average everything. Some people like to spin his average-ness by saying he is a professional ballplayer, but that is a nice way of saying he is boring, white, and has a beard. His three year deal looked bad initially, and with the economy soon tanking after his signing, it now looks mind-boggling. That being said, if used properly (bat him eighth Joe) Casey can provide pop at the bottom of the order. And that’s nothing to sneeze at.

OF: Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre
We all know what Manny can do. His praises have been sung enough in the past. He will hit 30 HR’s and post a strong OBP (anywhere from .390 to .420) and will drive in 100-plus runs. Matt Kemp is the key to the Dodgers outfield. Kemp posted a .799 OPS last year with 18 HR’s and 38 doubles. I think it’s reasonable to expect Kemp to post a .300/.350/.500 line this year with 20-25 homers and 30 SB’s. He is still a work in progress in the field but possesses a strong throwing arm and great speed. He needs to improve his Stolen Base Percentage (76% last year) and should continue to improve throughout the season. It’s amazing to think this is only his second full season in the big leagues. Andre Ethier is solid if not spectacular. Besides Manny, he was the best Dodger position player last season and he shined as the season went along. He hit 20 HR’s and has an amazing approach at the plate. Look for him to come close to his .305/.375/.510 line as he enters his prime. Juan Pierre is a decent fourth outfielder with a hideous contract. I have been extremely hard on Pierre in the past, but I like him as a fourth outfielder. He can pinch run at the end of the game and he is a better defensive outfielder than Manny (which isn’t saying much). As long as Pierre doesn’t play more than once a week, I am okay with his role.

SP: Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, James McDonald
Billingsley was one of the more underrated pitchers in all of baseball last season. He struck out over 200 batters in just over 200 innings and led the staff in wins, strikeouts, and ERA. Look for him to have a huge season and finally be recognized as a staff ace by the media. Kuroda really adjusted to pitching in America in the second half of the season. After a three week stint on the DL in June, Kuroda returned and pitched great down the stretch (2.29 ERA in August and 2.96 ERA in September). He gets the opening day start in San Diego and should be good for the Dodgers all year. Clayton Kershaw holds the key to the Dodgers rotation. At the ripe age of 20 last year, Kershaw struck out 100 batters in 107.2 innings. He had an ERA+ of 104 (ERA + is adjusted for league and park, where 100 is the average and a higher number is better). As a 21-year-old this year, I expect him to continue to fan a batter an inning while improving his control and command and bettering his ERA. I think a sub 4 ERA is possible and he should be able to contribute about 180 innings. Randy Wolf had a good second half in 2008 after his trade to Houston. Wolf is an average pitcher who had his first full season last year since 2003. If he can keep the Dodgers in most of the games he pitches this year, the team should be happy. A 4.50 ERA in 175 innings would be good from Randy. James McDonald is a two-time Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He has an above-average fastball with a good change and good curve. He should be able to stabilize the back-end of the rotation for the Dodgers and should at least be league average. Like Wolf, if McDonald can give the Dodgers 170-180 innings, I think they will be pleased. Unlike Wolf, McDonald has good upside and could have a very good season for the Dodgers.

RP: Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade, Guillermo Mota, Jeff Weaver, Brian Mazone, Claudio Vargas
Broxton takes unfair criticism from fans who don’t like the fact that he blows up on occasion. Luckily for Broxton, baseball is played over 162 games and during that time he is tremendous. Last year he struck out 88 batters in 69 innings while posting a 3.13 ERA and 14 saves while only giving up 2 HR’s. He takes over for Takashi Saito and should be able to fill his shoes nicely. Kuo probably is the filthiest pitcher on the Dodgers staff. Unfortunately he also has an elbow that has undergone four operations. If the Dodgers manage his workload, he will be great again. Last year he struck out an amazing 96 batters in 80 innings with a great 1.01 WHIP(Walks + Hits/ Innings Pitched). He can go multiple innings out of the pen but should be monitored closely. Cory Wade was the biggest surprise last year. Unheralded in the minor leagues, Wade had a 2.27 ERA in 71.1 innings and had a WHIP of .93. However, I expect a regression to the mean this year as Wade had a well-below league average BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and his inability to miss bats should catch up to him this year. Guillermo Mota was a bad signing by the Dodgers as his best days are way behind him. He should struggle this year, but if used properly (6th and 7th innings, and situations that aren’t high-leveraged) he will at least eat innings. Jeff Weaver takes over Chan-Ho Park’s spot as the swingman who can spot start and pitch in long relief. He is trying to reinvent himself to save his career so it will be interesting to see how it works. Brian Mazone has limited big league experience and is only on the Opening Day roster to help keep Will Ohman’s spot warm until he is ready. Claudio Vargas will be used as a long reliever and spot starter who is probably only on the roster because he has a guaranteed contract. Hopefully he will be used sparingly or the Dodgers will be in trouble. I see Vargas as a mid-season DFA candidate (baseball language for being cut)

Waiting in the Wings: LHP Will Ohman, RHP Josh Lindblom, 3B Blake Dewitt, SS Chin-Lung Hu, OF Xavier Paul, RHP Ramon Troncoso, LHP Scott Elbert

Ohman signed late and will be in the big leagues after two weeks. Lindblom jumped onto the Dodgers’ radar this spring, and even though the 2008 draftee has only 34 professional innings, he should be in LA sometime this season as either a starter or reliever. DeWitt was a godsend for the Dodgers last year, but after the Hudson signing, he will begin the season in AAA. He should be up at some point to fill-in for either the injured or the ineffective and although he is primarily a 3rd baseman, he can also play short and 2nd. Chin-Lung Hu has a tremendous glove but has struggled hitting at the big league level. He had his blurred vision problems fixed, and I am curious to see how he does now. He will be up at some point after the Dodgers realize that Juan Castro stinks. Xavier Paul has impressed the Dodger brass this spring and has moved ahead of Jason Repko in the organizational depth chart. If a starting OF gets injured, or the Dodgers find a taker for Juan Pierre, look for Paul to be the guy who gets the call. Ramon Troncoso has a power sinker and can be used as either a starter or reliever. Scott Elbert is a former top prospect who has battled injury problems but still has a ton of upside. The Dodgers will probably try him as a starter in the minors but he can also pitch in relief if needed.

Prediction: 89-73, NL West Champions
MVP: Manny Ramirez
Cy Young: Chad Billingsley
Breakout Position Player: Matt Kemp
Breakout Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
Minor Leaguer Most Likely to Have an Impact in Los Angeles: Josh Lindblom

What do you guys think? Any glaring errors or omissions. Let me know what you think in the comments below..