After Sunday's game in Milwaukee, the Dodgers have now played 88 games. Their record stands at 56-32, a Major League Baseball best, and the boys now get three days to unwind (minus Billingsley, Broxton and Hudson who will all be in St. Louis). With the time off, now is a great time to look back on the Dodgers first half of the season. We'll take a position-by-position look at the 2009 Los Angeles Dodgers:
Starting Lineup
C Russell Martin- The rock of the 2006-2008 Dodgers has had a concerning dip in production in 2009. Martin has seen a considerable drop in both batting average and slugging percentage. The BA drop doesn't concern me, as his on-base percentage is still strong (.373). What concerns me is his continued drop in power. Martin finished 2008 with a sub-.400 SLG and the trend has continued this season. Martin's isolated power is only .056, down from his career average of .133. Also concerning is Martin's inability to block pitches in the dirt. He has looked hesitant on certain pitches and the Dodgers' staff leads baseball in wild pitches. All this told, Martin is still one of the better catchers in the game. His strong OBP makes him a valuable player, especially at his position. And he has showed signs of coming out in recent outings. So hopefully the Dodgers will have a strong Russell J. Martin for the second half of 2009.
1B James Loney- I labeled 2009 as make-or-break for James Loney as a Dodger. That was probably a bit premature, but this hasn't been a great year for Loney. His power, or lack thereof, is unacceptable for a 1B, especially one that is not posting a particularly strong OBP. Loney's line so far in 2009: .281/.350/.402. Despite being in the bottom rung of the ladder for production from a first baseman, the Dodgers can live with it in 2009 because they are so strong at every other position. If Loney can finish the year with 15 homers I think the team would be happy. If he is not going to hit for power I would at least like to see him hit for average and improve his on-base skills. Loney does have 54 RBI, but it is a bit misleading because he really doesn't belong anywhere near the middle of the order for a good offensive team.
2B Orlando Hudson- The O-Dog has been great for the Dodgers so far this season. Despite struggling in June and the first half of July, his overall upgrade over Jeff Kent has been awesome. The O-Dog has posted a .283/.353/.426 line so far this season while playing very good defense. His nasty wrist injury to last season seems to be in the past and is on track to match his career numbers in every category. The O-Dog has been worth every dollar the Dodgers gave him when they signed him over the winter, and he definitely merited being an All-Star.
SS Rafael Furcal- The Dodgers have used kid gloves on Raffy for the entire first half as he recovered from back surgery last season. Furcal did not start a handful of day games in order to try and keep him healthy and productive. Fortunately he has stayed healthy. Unfortunately he has not been productive. Furcal has posted a .681 OPS on the season. However, he has shown signs recently of coming out of his funk, with a 1.018 OPS in 43 at-bats in July. If Furcal can keep up his recent play for the second half, the Dodgers lineup will be unstoppable. Raffy is a game changer at the top of the lineup and it would be great to see him play like we know he can.
3B Casey Blake. The Beard has been great this season for the Dodgers. He has solved the Dodgers third base quandry that has existed ever since Adrian Beltre left for Seattle after the 2004 season. While I still am not happy that the Dodgers traded Carlos Santana for Blake last July, I must admit I have been incredibly surprised by his strong play this season. Blake has outperformed his career averages in BA, OBP, and SLG. He has also been pretty good over at the hot corner. He probably shouldn't bat cleanup on the best team in baseball, but he has been great for the Dodgers and I can't deny that.
LF Manny Ramirez- Manny has done nothing but rake since joining the Dodgers. Unfortunately he was suspended for 50 games in early May for violating baseball's PED agreement. But he is back now and he is doing what Manny does: hit a baseball better than almost every other player. Manny is hitting .355 on the season with a .487 OBP and .669 SLG. The Dodgers lineup is so dynamic when he is batting third, and the team will continue to score as long as he stays healthy.
CF Matt Kemp- Kemp has been spectacular so far in his breakout season. He is hitting .320 with a .879 OPS. He is on pace for 20 HR's and 35 SB's. He has an improved batting eye, posting an iso-OBP of .064, up from his career average of .048. Oh and he has played incredible defense in center. Kemp leads all MLB CF's in UZR, and he has 10 outfield assists. He still has a ton of room before he hits his ceiling, and at this point anything less than superstardom for Kemp would be disappointing.
RF Andre Ethier- Dre has had a weird season for the Dodgers. His power is up big time, his 18 HR's at the break is only 2 shy of his career high for an entire season, but his BA is down big time. A lifetime .290 hitter, Ethier has hit only .250 so far this year, and as a result his OBP is only .338. I do expect him to get hot and finish around .275/.360/.500 for the year though because he is such a good hitter. Despite his lower BA and OBP, his power has been a welcome addition to the Dodgers lineup.
Bench
Juan Pierre- Juan did an admirable job filling in for Manny during his suspension, especially early on. Juan hit .369 in May before crashing back to Earth with a .264 average in June. He now returns to the bench in a role as the fourth outfielder. Juan has received a tremedous amount of credit for the Dodgers great play during the first half, and rightfully so. However, the talk of him deserving to be an All-Star or even starting for the Dodgers was a bit silly. Nonetheless, his good play should not go unnoticed, even by Pierre "haters" like me.
Mark Loretta- Loretta has been unspectacular in his role as pinch-hitter and spot starter. But he is a nice guy to have around because he is a decent hitter and the Dodgers really don't have many other options on the bench.
Brad Ausmus- Ausmus has a .730 OPS in 56 at-bats so far this season. The Dodgers will take that all season long. He has performed the role the Dodgers wanted him to, backing up Russell Martin while handling the staff well. Like Loretta, he is not a bad guy to have on the team.
Juan Castro- The Dodgers signed Castro to play good defense while backing up Furcal at short and Hudson at second. They didn't know he was going to hit like this. Small sample sizes can be so fun. Castro is a great example of why they can be so fun; the man with a lifetime OPS of .606 has posted an incredible (for him) OPS of .834 so far this season in 71 at-bats. It will not continue but he will continue to play good defense when he is needed.
Blake DeWitt- The Dodgers pleasant surprise of 2008 has been shuttled back and forth between AAA and the big leagues this season during 2009. DeWitt has had only 23 at-bats with the Dodgers, batting .174 with one HR.
Xavier Paul- Paul was called up to fill Manny's spot after the suspension. He showed some promise in his limited duty, but a staph infection has sidelined him for nearly two months.
Jamie Hoffman- Hoffman filled in as fourth outfielder after Manny's suspension and Xavier Paul's staph infection. He made a highlight reel catch and throw in Chicago and hit a three-run HR early on, but mostly struggled in his 22 at-bats before being demoted.
Mitch Jones- The real life Crash Davis was called up during interleague play to DH in American League parks. He posted a .785 OPS in 13 at-bats before being sent back down.
Doug Mientkiewicz- Doug looked like he was going to be a great option off the bench for the Dodgers, but a pointless head-first slide into second base separated his shoulder and has limited him to 5 at-bats all season.
A.J. Ellis- Ellis got his first major league at-bat this season after two stints up with the big team, but is 0 for 4 on the season. He is a likely call-up when rosters expand in September.
Overall, the Dodgers offense has been very good this season, despite suffering from nearly two months without Manny. The Dodgers are second in the league in runs scored, averaging 5.03 runs per game. The big component in the Dodgers success has been their ability to get on base, as they lead the league with a .354 OBP. The Dodgers are 11th in the league in home runs (76 total), but that number figures to rise with Manny's return. If the Dodgers can continue to get on base and hit for average power, their offense will be one of the best in the league.
Starting Pitching
Chad Billingsley- Bills has been very good for the Dodgers this year, with a 3.38 ERA. He has become the rock of the staff, leading the team in innings pitched with 125.1. His 119 strikeouts show how good his stuff is, but he struggled a bit with his control in the first half, as he finished second in the league with 55 walks issued. Bills was named to his first All-Star team, and he figures to finish the season with an ERA just over 3.00. The Dodgers pitching has exceeded expectations this season, and Chad is a big reason why.
Randy Wolf- Wolf has been terrific for the Dodgers, pitching 114.2 innings of 3.45 ERA. Wolf has struck out 85 batters, and after changing his number to 43, upped his record to 4-3. The only blemish on Wolf's record has been the longball, as he has given up 15 of them. But overall, the Dodgers are getting a great return on their one-year investment in Wolf.
Clayton Kershaw- Clayshaw has really come on for the Dodgers since May 1st. In his last 14 starts, Kershaw has a 7-3 record with a 2.06 ERA. On the year, he has 99 strikeouts in 99.2 innings, and his ERA is 3.16. The only issue with Kershaw is his walk total. He has given up a league-leading 59 BB's, but he has mostly been able to work around those walks. The 21 year-old is well on his way to superstardom, and I think it's safe to say he is untouchable, even in a trade for Roy Halladay.
Hiroki Kuroda- Kuroda started Opening Day, then missed two months before returning for nine starts. He has struggled since returning, and on the year he has a 4.67 ERA. If Kuroda can have a second half like he did last year, the Dodgers staff will be in great shape. They have been able to get away with his struggles so far, but the Dodgers need Kuroda going forward.
Eric Stults- Stults pitched well for the Dodgers early on, but a thumb injury derailed his season. In 9 starts, Stults has a 4.80 ERA, with 30 strikeouts to go along with 25 walks.
Eric Milton- Milton briefly resurrected his major league career before a back injury threatened the rest of his 2009. Milton is 2-1 in 5 starts with a 3.80 ERA.
Bullpen
Johnathon Broxton- The Bull has stepped into the closers role and performed brilliantly. He has 65 strikeouts in 40.2 innings, and has converted 20 of 22 saves. A toe injury is a concern going forward, but if he returns to full health the Dodgers have one of the best closers in baseball. He is a deserving 2009 All-Star.
Ramon Troncoso- Troncoso has had a funny season. He has an incredible 1.75 ERA 56.2 innings. However, his peripheral numbers are down from last season. Tron has struck out only 34 batters while allowing 21 walks. Yet, his ability to get the ground ball has been a huge asset for the Dodgers. So has his ability to pitch multiple innings.
Ronald Belisario- Beli is the most pleasant surprise for the 2009 Dodgers. Despite never pitching above AA, the Dodgers gave him a shot. He has not disappointed. Joe Torre has since run him into the ground, resulting in an inevitable DL stint. But if he can return the Dodgers bullpen will remain one of the best in baseball. In 48.1 innings, Belisario has 46 strikeouts, and his fastball is one of the most filthy pitches you will see.
Jeff Weaver- The Weave has been yet another pleasant surprise for the Dodgers. In 44 innings of duty, Weaver has a 3.48 ERA. He has bounced between starting and long relief, and has been a valuable player for Joe Torre.
Guillermo Mota- Mota has come on strong in the last two months. After his May 17 apperance, he had an ERA of 9. Since then, he has a 0.35 ERA in 26 innings. Wow. I don't expect him to continue to pitch well but there is no denying how great he has been lately. However, I still don't feel comfortable when he is in the game. I guess that's my problem though.
James McDonald- In 4 starts in April, McDonald struggled badly. After a temporary demotion to the bullpen and then AAA, however, he has been terrific. In 14.1 innings since moving to the pen, J-Mac has a 1.26 ERA. I still think his long-term future is as a starter, but in the meantime he can be useful out of the bullpen.
Cory Wade- Wade has not been able to duplicate his 2008 season. Wade was lucky on balls in play in '08, but that has not translated to this season, and it is a big reason why he has a struggled. An early season trip to the DL didn't help either. Wade has a 5.53 ERA in 27.2 innings, and is only back in the big leagues because of Belisario's injury.
Will Ohman- Ohman has been hilarious for the Dodgers, but that's about it. Before injuring his shoulder, the funny man had a 5.84 ERA in 12.1 innings while struggling to get lefties out.
Brent Leach- Leach has filled the situational lefty role vacated by Ohman's absence. Leach has pitched well for the Dodgers, with 17 K's in 19 innings while holding lefties to a .205 average.
Scott Elbert- Elbert is one of my favorite up-and-coming Dodgers. The young lefty has struck out 9 batters in his 9 innings. We figure to see much more of Elbert in the future.
Hong-Chih Kuo- Kuo's history of arm injuries has continued into 2009. After struggling to start the season, the news came out that Kuo's arm was tender... again. Kuo just began a rehab assignment, and his return would be huge for the pitching staff.
Travis Schlichting- The young righty made two appearances, working 2.2 innings and giving up one run.
Claudio Vargas- Vargas returned from the 60-day DL last week. He has worked 2 innings of mop-up duty, and has not surrendered a run so far.
The Dodgers pitching staff has been awesome this year. The team is second in the NL in ERA at 3.58. The Dodgers are also second in strikeouts. Two areas to improve on: The starters need to go deeper into games and the entire staff needs to cut back on the walks. Overall, the staff has been rock solid and is a main reason why the Dodgers have the best record in baseball.
The All-Star Game is Tuesday night and then the Dodgers resume play on Thursday night at home versus the Astros. Hopefully the boys will be rested and ready to go. The Dodgers have yet to lose three in a row, and as long as they avoid any extended losing streaks, the division is theirs. I can't wait for the second half to start.
Excellent analysis, Vinnie. Very thoughtful and informative.
ReplyDeleteWow you spent some time on this one. Pretty straight forward analysis and a good one at that.
ReplyDeleteOne thought - Maybe Martin should ditch the "J" as it seems to have hindered his offensive production.
I think he should probably ditch it if he is superstitious at all haha. Who do you guys think was the Dodgers first half MVP?
ReplyDeleteNicely done, I must say you outdid me with the first half recap, I would have to say Billingsley is the Dodgers first half MVP.
ReplyDeleteThank you sir. I was watching the HR derby and decided to go all out. Bills is a good choice: Mine would have to be some combo of Kemp, Hudson, and Blake. All three were huge for the team. And Bills and Brox have been great too
ReplyDeletewe want you back! write more entries!!
ReplyDelete